Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
AG FUNDEMENTALS:
The USDA April WASDE report will release tomorrow at 11:00 am CST. Estimates suggest corn could move either direction off the 1.54B bushel March US ending stock estimate based on how much the USDA will move exports and ethanol usage higher and feed/residual usage lower. US soybean and wheat ending stocks are expected to be unchanged. Argentina’s bean crop is expected to drop around 44 million bushels from the March estimate while Brazil’s average estimate suggests their bean crop will increase by around 11M bushels. Corn ethanol estimates will be released later this morning. Two major subjects bean traders are watching the headline for are renewable biodiesel policy changes and clarity on ocean vessel freight charges. Deferred soybean prices, prominently in the new crop US harvest window of August forward.
WEATHER:
Ocean surface temperatures off the west coast of Mexico and South America are starting to shift closer to something more resembling an El Nino environment. The cooler water off the west coast of North America is starting to dissipate west and warmer water is developing off the west coast of South America. Depending on how the jet stream reacts, this may suggest more storm activity in the southern regions and less in the north.
April 10th USDA WASDE Report Estimates
The July/Nov Soybean Spread has reacted violently higher since the April 2nd “Liberation Day”.
Chance of El Nino has increase in the last couple months as ocean surface temps shift with cooler water dissipating and warmer water emerging off the west coast of South America.
Ocean Surface Temps
Effects of El Nino typically peak around December. Basically, The jet stream moves quickly across the southern US which increases storms in the south, but may lead to drier weather in the north.
Export & World News
The USDA announced a sale of 240K MT of US corn to Spain yesterday. South Korea bought about 65K Mt of animal feed wheat, and Jordan bought roughly 60K MT of milling wheat in an international tender.
Malaysian palm oil futures were down 38 ringgit overnight, now at 4150.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
Weather Outlook
>>Interested in more commentary by Joe Mauck? Go HERE
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