Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
GEOPOLITICS:
President Trump is expected to hold a press conference in the Oval Office today at noon CST. Expectations are that he will lay out the plan for reciprocal tariffs. The market is likely to react to the statements.
MACROECONOMICS:
The Producer Price Index Reported 0.4% increase month-over-month, one tenth of a percent higher than expectations. December’s PPI was adjusted from 0.2% to 0.5% which is more of a jump to consider. Food and fuel were the main drivers for the increase. Unemployment claims were slightly lower than expectations.
AG FUNDAMENTALS:
Soybean export sales disappoint with -365K MT of reductions to unknown destinations causing beans to report numbers below the estimate range this morning. Soybean meal saw reductions from Panama (-8,400 MT) and Indonesia (-300 MT), and soybean oil had reductions from India (-9,700 MT) and Venezuela (-500 MT). Corn and wheat also saw reductions from unknown, Panama and Spain, but their export sales were reported near the top end of expectations regardless. There are several countries in the market to buy international wheat tenders. This could be due to both the global stock to use being tighter than normal and the potential for new developments between Russia and Ukraine. Favorable weather in South America continues to put pressure on both corn and bean markets in the US. The dollar is weaker this morning, but that may change following any new remarks made by Trump at noon presser.
Ukraine’s Wheat Production Area at risk marked with the area in red which is under Russia military control. Will a peace deal include all of this land going to Russia?
WEEKLY EXPORT SALES
| Sales 24/25 | Est Range | Sales 25/26 | Est Range |
Wheat | 569,600 | 200K-600K | 36,800 | 0-75K |
Corn | 1,649,000 | 800K-1,700K | 350,100 | 0-500K |
Beans | 185,500 | 300K-800K | 24,300 | 0-50K |
Meal | 336,700 | 200K-600K | 0 | 0-25K |
Soyoil | 2,800 | 0-25K | 0 | 0-10K |
EXPORT & WORLD NEWS
Reported yesterday, the USDA sold 130K MT of corn and 120K MT of soybeans to unknown destinations. South Korea bought about 115K MT of animal feed wheat and they are looking to buy up to 210K MT of corn from the US, South America or South Africa. Japan is in the market to buy up to 123K MT of food quality wheat. Jordan wants in too, seeking 120K MT of milling wheat. Saudi Arabia also issued an international tender to buy up to 595K MT of wheat.
Malaysian palm oil futures were down 67 ringgit overnight, now at 4554.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
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