Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
Macroeconomics:
The US Dollar has popped back above 109 on the index this morning, retesting 2-year highs set earlier this month. US job openings rise in November even though hiring has slowed. The services sector has improved according to the ISM Services report yesterday. Jobless claims this morning were lower than expected. All telling me the Fed is likely to slow easing cycle, reaffirming the sentiment following Jerome Powell’s most recent press conference. Still over 90% probability of no change to federal interest rates in the January 29th announcement.
Ag Fundamentals:
Tomorrow the grain exchange will close early at 12:15pm CST in remembrance of the late former President Jimmy Carter. Production estimates for both corn and beans are expecting a slight pull back in both in Friday’s WASDE report. Average estimates show a drop of about -50M bu of corn and -10M bu of beans. US Corn ending stocks is expected to fall about -60M bu so in addition to production loss, usage and exports may increase +10-15M bu. Despite a slight drop in US bean ending stock estimates, the world ending stocks for soybeans is anticipating a rise according to average estimates.
Unemployment Claims were reported -13K claims less than expected at 201K claims. This is the lowest this number has been since February 2024. This follows up yesterday’s strong JOLTS number.
Managed Money shifting their corn position from record short to over 200K contracts long in 6 months.
First 7 Days of January Precip Anomaly Map:
Export & World News
Jordan bought about 60K MT of hard milling wheat in an international tender. Jordan is looking to buy an additional 180K MT of hard milling wheat. South Korea is looking to buy 138K MT of feed corn and 60K MT of feed wheat.
Malaysian palm oil futures were down 11 ringgit overnight, at 4354.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
>>Interested in more commentary by Joe Mauck? Go HERE
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
