Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
Macroeconomics:
Gold hitting record highs today with June futures reaching over 3100 per ounce this morning. New bullish targets are reaching as high as $3500 by year end. This morning’s inflation data came in slightly warmer than expected in February. The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.4% (0.1% higher than estimate). This put the 12-month inflation rate at 2.8%.
Ag Fundamentals:
Prospective plantings will be released by the USDA on Monday morning at 11:00am CST and estimates can be found in the table below. Corn acres are in the hot seat with some estimates reaching over 96 million acres. Grain stocks will also be included in the Monday morning report. Corn stocks are expected to be 1-3% lower than this time last year, soybean stocks 2.5-4% higher and wheat stocks expected to be 10-15% higher than this time last year. Wheat prices have tanked recently and now wheat feed is starting to enter the group chat more often in comparison to corn prices. Cattle prices continue to hit new highs with herd sizes still struggling to recover. The market will be listening closely to the Trump administration’s tone on tariffs for the next 5 days leading up to Wednesday (“Liberation Day”) next week. The auto tariffs that Trump added to the market’s plate of uncertainty earlier this week will effect Japan, Mexico, Canada, South Korea, and Germany the most. Mexico and Japan being the top two auto trade partners with the US, retaliations in the Ag industry puts corn in the cross hairs. Mexico and Japan were the destinations for just over 50% of the total US corn exports this last marketing year.
MARCH 31 PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS ESTIMATE
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EXPORT & WORLD NEWS
Taiwan bought about 100K Mt of milling wheat. South Korea bought about 330K MT of animal feed corn and 55K MT of animal feed wheat between a few different international tenders.
Malaysian palm oil futures were up 108 ringgit overnight, now at 4420.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
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