Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
GEOPOLITICS:
The US senate voted 49-49 to overturn President Trump’s tariffs, so the lasted attempt to do so was rejected. The new tax bill was originally expected to be pushed out to American in late May, but the date has been pushed back. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced earlier this week that the “mega tax bill” will have a deadline of July 4th.
AG FUNDAMENTALS:
Export Sales were all in line with estimates. Corn and soybeans reported exports on the high side of the estimate range, and new crop corn exports were 44K MT above the estimate range. The drought monitor improved week-over-week. Most of the drought improvements were focused around the central wheat belt in the line of states Texas to North Dakota. Compared to last year, Iowa Kansas, and Missouri are in better shape today. Nebraska, and South Dakota are in slightly worse shape than this time last year.
MACROECONOMICS:
Unemployment claims at 241K this morning were up 18K since last week and 17K higher than the average estimate. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be released at 9:00am this morning. Since November of 2022, there have only been 3 months with manufacturing expansion. Every other month since then has reported contraction in US industry. Expectations are that we will see more bad news for manufacturing this morning as well.
July Soybeans are flirting with the 50-day moving average at 10.37 this morning, after trading through the 200-day moving average support. July beans have still managed to close above the 100-day moving average. Bulls need some ammo and we are still 12 days out from the next WASDE report.
Weekly Unemployment Claims jumped to 241K which was about 17K more jobless claims than expected.
Weekly Export Sales
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Export & World News
Syria is considering price offers to buy up to 100K MT of soft milling wheat in an international tender. Canada is expecting to have a record wheat export program this year.
Malaysian palm oil futures were down 32 ringgit overnight, now at 3911.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
Weather Outlook
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