Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
Geopolitics:
In the latest tariff news, President Trump announced plans to impose 100% tariffs on films/movie made outside of the US. In an interview over the weekend, Trump said he will not drop tariffs to entice China to come to the negotiation table. China will return from there Spring Festival holiday later tonight. China’s factory activity has dropped to a 2-year low in April. Their manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was reported at 49.0 last week. There have been reports of factory workers, across many cities in China, protesting in response to cuts in production. Their outrage stems from unpaid wages and wrongful terminations due to the new tariff policies effecting business. China’s unemployment rate is currently at 5.2%, down from 5.4% in February which was the highest since early 2023. Estimates still suggest China’s economy will expand by 3.5% this year.
Ag Fundamentals:
The CTFC Commitment of Traders report on Friday was mixed. Managed Money dropped corn contracts more than any other row crop. They are also now record short in Kansas city wheat at -67,269 contracts. Accounting for all types of wheat, managed money is now holding a record short for combined wheat now at -207,798 contracts.
Weather:
Ag markets slump into May with a lack of weather premium thanks to optimal conditions in both the US and South America. Rain will hit the southern states, giving the Delta a kick-start to their growing season. The Midwest and northern plains will remain dry, allowing to planting to progress at above average pace. Estimates suggest US planting progress this afternoon will be 42-45% planted for corn and 30-35% planted for soybeans. Both Argentina and Brazil were dry over the weekend. Argentina harvest benefited from the clear weather.
Weekly Change to Money Manager’s Position
Corn: -41,476
Soybeans: +7,135
Soybean Meal: -24,716
Soybean Oil: +12,488
Chi Wheat: -31,486
KC Wheat: -10,645
Canola: +16,980
Record Wheat Short:
Export & World News
South Korea bought about 36K MT of milling wheat from the US. South Korea also bought up to 70K MT of animal feed corn.
Malaysian palm oil futures were down 68 ringgit overnight, now at 3813.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.70 (expanded $1.05); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
Weather Outlook
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