Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
Geopolitics:
The Indian and Pakistan conflict continues to grip the world’s attention. The Indian Rupee fell over 1% and there were several market halts reported in their equity markets. The tension between the two nuclear players has not been this bad since their war in 1971. That war began on December 3rd 1971 and ended on December 16th 1971. It took 13 days and a full scale invasion by India of East Pakistan leading to a Pakistani surrender.
Macroeconomics:
President Trump wrote on Truth Social last night: “Big News Conference tomorrow morning at 10:00 A.M., The Oval Office, concerning a MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY. THE FIRST OF MANY!!!” He announced last night that the US and the UK have a “full and comprehensive” trade deal in place. So expect markets to react to that news at 10am (9am CST). Federal interest rates were left unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% following the conclusion of the Fed meeting yesterday. President Trump also took shots at Jerome Powell for not lower rates, nothing new to report.
Ag Fundamentals:
Corn export sales! 65.45M bushels of corn reported in this morning’s weekly export sales. New crop 25/26 wheat sales were higher than expected as well, penciling nearly a half million MT of wheat sales on the new crop books. There were a few flash sales reported by the USDA this morning: 205K MT of corn delivered to Mexico (40K MT for 24/25 marketing year and 15K MT for 25/26 MY), 115K MT of old crop corn delivered to unknown destinations, and 225K MT of soybeans sold to Pakistan for the 25/26 marketing year. Strong export demand may not be enough to support the corn board with planting progress going so well. The 5-day weather forecast shows a wide window for northern farmers to get alot of work done. No significant improvements to the drought monitor this morning. We are in better shape this year than this time last year. I wills end out trade estimates for the May WASDE report coming out on Monday May 12th at 11:00am CST.
Weekly Export Sales
| Sales 24/25 | Est Range | Sales 25/26 | Est Range |
Wheat | 69,700 | (100K)-150K | 493,500 | 200K-400K |
Corn | 1,662,500 | 700K-1.4M | 18,000 | 0-300K |
Beans | 376,700 | 200K-500K | 9,800 | 0-150K |
Meal | 111,900 | 200K-400K | 10,300 | 0 |
Soyoil | 14,600 | (5K)-20K | 1,100 | 0 |
Export & World News
The USDA announced a few flash sales this morning: 205K MT of corn delivered to Mexico (40K MT for 24/25 marketing year and 15K MT for 25/26 MY), 115K MT of old crop corn delivered to unknown destinations, and 225K MT of soybeans sold to Pakistan for the 25/26 marketing year. South Korea purchased 67K Mt of South American corn.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.70 (expanded $1.05); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
Weather Outlook
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