Written Commentary
MORNING COMMENTS
Macroeconomics:
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reports measure how much households in the US spend on goods and services. The Fed has stated that is is one of most important indicators for them to judge the health of the economy. Today’s year over year report came in better than expected. The market forecasted an increase of +2.3% and the year over year PCE was reported at only +2.1%. The labor market has been a focus point for the Fed’s reasoning. This report coming in hot could tip the Fed closer to no cut to interest rates next week. Earlier this week the Fed watch site had a 99% probability of a 25 basis point cut next week. It has since dropped to 96% probable.
Weather:
Export sales last week were neutral to slightly bullish soybeans. Most of the wheat went to Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia and Japan. Corn export sales went to primarily Mexico, Japan, and Columbia. Major soybeans sales went to China, Unknown, Mexico, Netherlands and Italy. Asside from strong exports, ethanol demand has been solid as well. The US used 109M bu of corn used last week. Between yesterday report and the previous, the USDA may be influenced to raise corn usage estimates in the next report next Friday, November 8th. Alot going on next week. so traders are hitting the sidelines and waiting to jump in following the US presidential election, the Fed decision, and the WASDE report.
The Current Radar showing rain moving across the center of the country. Hoping to see improvements in river levels and soil moisture.
Weekly Export Sales
| Sales 24/25 | Est Range | Sales 25/26 | Est Range |
Wheat | 411,400 | 300-600K | 0 | 0-75K |
Corn | 2,341,700 | 1800-3500K | 0 | 0-500K |
Beans | 2,273,300 | 1600-2800K | 0 | 0-150K |
Meal | 208,400 | 100-350K | 100 | 0-50K |
Soyoil | 10,400 | 0-30K | 0 | 0-15K |
Export & World News
The USDA reported a 150K MT sale of soybean meal to China and unknown destinations.
Malaysian palm oil futures were up 59 ringgit overnight, at 4696.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
>>Interested in more commentary by Joe Mauck? Go HERE
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
