Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Leap year. SK is down 8 cents and near 11.37. SMK is near 324.7 . BOK is near 45.24. CK is unch and near 4.28. WK is up 1 cents and near 5.76. KWK is up 1 cent and near 5.82. MWK is up 1 cent and near 6.57. US stocks are lower. Congress agreed to avoid shutdown. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. US stock build vs Russia stopping gas exports for 6 months due to drop in domestic supply. Cattle and cotton are off their highs. Cocoa and coffee are higher.
SK is near 11.37. Dalian soybean and soymeal were lower, palmoil and soyoil were higher. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 100-600 mt and soymeal 250-550 mt. Trend of higher soymeal sales vs soybean continues. China soybean demand may be increasing but Brazil soybean prices still discount to US. Brazil farmer selling slow due to warm and dry weather. This is helping soybean harvest but stressing 2nd corn crop. Argentina offering soymeal near $367 vs US $411. World crush rates are record high. Where will all the new soymeal go?
CK is near 4.28. CK has rallied 23 cents from recent low on fund short covering. Still short 340,00 contracts. CH-CK spread firming to -12. US stocks are high vs uncertain US summer weather. Dalian corn futures were lower. Weekly US corn sales are est at 600-1,200 mt. China is buying Ukraine corn. China seeing record feedgrain imports despite record crop. C/S Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay are dry. Brazil export corn prices lower on demand worries. More questions about second crop outlook. Most of US Midwest is warm and dry. Crazy Midwest weather, yesterday lows near 22 degrees, Warm weekend and cold temps next week.
Wheat futures are higher after trading lower Wednesday. WH was down due to talk of deliveries. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 200-550 mt. Central US is dry. Some feel Managed funds could slowly liquidate short futures into US and Russia growing season. China loading US SRW helping basis and spreads. US SRW $248. Russia $209. Some talk of Russia concern over lower farmer prices. Ukriane plus Russia Februray wheat exports est at a record 6.50 mmt. Australia wheat futures continue lower. Matif wheat futures lower and new lows.
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