Brazil Coffee Exports Surge in June

COFFEE

September Coffee fell to its lowest level for the week early Thursday, which perhaps reflects a harvest conditions in Brazil and a strong export performance in June. Cecafe said Brazil’s green coffee exports totaled 2.64 million bags in June, which was +14.4% from the same period in 2025. Arabica exports reached 2 million bags, +9.6% from year-ago, and robusta shipments totaled 633,478 bags, +32.7%. Exports of processed coffee, including instant and roasted coffee, totaled 422,831 bags, +35.7%, bringing total coffee exports to 3.06 million bags, +16.9%. Brazil’s total green coffee exports for the 2025/26 crop year totaled 34.53 million bags, -16.6% from 2024/25. Total coffee shipments totaled 38.46 million bags – 15.7%. Coffee is one of the product that is exempted from the 25% tariff being proposed by the Trump administration on imports from Brazil. Brazil’s co-op Cooxupe said its farmers had harvested 38.6% of their 2026 crop as of July 10, down from 49.3% at the same time last year, likely due to the delays from the heavy rains in June.  Drier conditions have prevailed recently, which should be allowing the harvest to advance. Coffee traders in Vietnam’s told Reuters that domestic prices rose this week on tightening supplies, even as trading activity was subdued due to weak demand and fresh Indonesian supplies. Coffee harvesting in Indonesia is ongoing, and the peak harvest period has yet to begin. World Weather Inc. says Brazil coffee areas will see little, if any, rain over the next ten days, which at this point is viewed as beneficial for harvest. Indonesia is seeing drier than normal drier conditions the will continue for most of the next week. Things could get worse if El Nino is as strong as being forecast.

COTTON

December Cotton was hovering near Wednesday’s lows early Thursday, as the market awaited the latest US export sales report. The market may have seen some support from a weaker dollar yesterday as that improves the prospect for US exports. The dollar index was near unchanged overnight but it is also coming from a very high level. Higher energy prices can also support cotton on ideas this makes polyester more expensive, but high energy costs are also disruptive to the global economy, upon which cotton demand depends. Last week’s export sales report showed net cotton sales for the week ending July 2 at 66,422 bales for the 2025/26 (current) marketing year and 86,971 for 2026/27 for a total of 153,393. This was up from  93,118 the previous week but below the average of the previous four weeks at 278,800. Cumulative sales for 2025/26 had reached 11.917 million bales, up from 11.720 million at this time last year but below the five-year average of 14.060 million. Sales had reached 106% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 113% for this point in the marketing year. West Texas needs rain, but other growing areas in the US look okay. World Weather Inc. says southern parts of West Texas may experience some strong to severe thunderstorms in late this week that may produce areas of heavy rain and some hail.

COCOA

September Cocoa was lower early Thursday following mixed second quarter grind numbers from Asia and Europe,  with Asia’s grind coming in strong and Europe’s weak. The North American grind is scheduled for release later today, most likely after the close. World Weather Inc reports that Ghana, Ivory Coast, and southwestern Nigeria all received near to above normal rainfall during the past month. Several areas in Ivory Coast received a little too much rain and would welcome a period of drier weather. They described production potentials for this season’s cocoa crop as relatively favorable. ICE warehouse stocks decreased by 1,187 bags on Wednesday to 3.203 million after reaching their highest since level June 28, 2024 on Tuesday. This marked the first daily decline in 11 sessions.

SUGAR

October Sugar was sharply lower early Thursday, falling to its lowest level since June 26. Tuesday’s news that Brazil was raising it mandatory ethanol blend in gasoline to 32% from 30% was neither a surprise nor much of a market mover, as plans to do so had been reported last month. If anything, this seems to be a case of “buying the rumor.” Drier conditions have prevailed in Brazil over the past few weeks, which should help the harvest advance. The trade is still waiting for the next update from Unica. The last one covered the second half of May. The wet conditions in June likely slowed harvest progress. The trade is looking for a slight decline in crushing relative to last year, with a large decline in sugar production and an increase in ethanol. France saw some heavy rains and thunderstorms yesterday that should temporarily improve topsoil moisture and crop conditions, but World Weather Inc. says dry conditions are expected to return Sunday and last through July 25 and perhaps longer.

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.