ADMIS News
COFFEE
July Coffee extended its selloff a bit early Tuesday, falling to its lowest level since August 4, but it managed to climb back to higher on the day as the session progressed. World Weather Inc. said greater-than-expected rain during the weekend in southern Mato Grosso do Sul, northern Parana and southwestern Sao Paulo has delayed coffee maturation and harvest progress in those areas, and they added that harvest may be slower than usual over the coming week to ten days because of more daily showers and a few weak thunderstorms. The Brazilian real recovered on Monday after steep selloff on Friday, but it was still well below last week’s two-year highs. The strong real reduces the incentive for producers to sell for export. Safras & Mercado reported that as of May 13, Brazilian 2026/27 coffee sales had reached 16% of the expected harvests, similar to this time last year.
COCOA
July Cocoa was higher early Tuesday but inside Monday’s range down action. Recent dry conditions in West Africa may be starting to gain attention from traders. World Weather Inc. says most production areas in west Africa should can expect light, periodic rains over the next week that there is some increased need for greater rain in west-central Africa where recent rainfall has been a little lighter and more sporadic than usual. Ivory Coast farmers interviewed by Reuters on Monday said that below-average rainfall in most of the nation’s cocoa regions last week could shorten the March-to-August mid-crop, although bean availability is currently increasing.
SUGAR
July Sugar was higher early Tuesday, as the market continued to bounce back and forth between the 14.50-15.50 levels on uncertainty over the upcoming crop due to El Nino and support from the ethanol sector on the one hand and what appear to be a strong start to the Brazilian harvest. The International Sugar Organization is forecasting a global sugar deficit of 0.262 million metric tons for 2026/27, but the group has also raised its surplus forecast for 2025/26 to 2.244 million tons from 1.22 million in February. Global production is projected to fall by some 2 million tons in 2026/27 season, due the anticipated effects that El Niño is to have on Asian production. ISO also raised the possibility that stock building, driven by concerns over reduced fertilizer use and increased hedging, could support prices.
COTTON
July Cotton was lower early Tuesday but inside Monday’s range. The White House posted a fact sheet on Sunday that said China has agreed to buy at least $17 billion per year annually in American agricultural products through 2028, which helped counter some of the skepticism that any sort of agreement was reached when President Trump met with Chinese President Xi last week. A turn in the weather pattern towards more rainfall in Texas and Oklahoma could be a more bearish influence given the ongoing drought the region has experienced. World Weather Inc, said the southern US Plains will experience wetter than usual conditions this week. Rain and thunderstorms will spread across Texas and Oklahoma late Tuesday into Thursday, and another disturbance will promote rain and storms Friday and this weekend.
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