Brazil Harvest Slows Coffee

COFFEE

July Coffee was slightly higher early Tuesday but in the low end of Monday’s range after falling to its lowest level since last July on Monday. The Brazilian harvest has gotten off to a slower than normal start due to excess moisture, but it is expected to increase this in this month, and it is expected to be large. World Weather Inc, does not expect much rain in Brazilian growing areas over the coming week, which should help advance crop maturation and harvest. The Honduran Coffee Institute (IHCAFE) reported the nation’s coffee exports totaled 1.09 million bags in May, up 9.9% from a year ago. Cumulative exports since the marketing year began in October have reached 5.77 million bags, up from 4.21 million for the same period last year. The US accounts for 34.3%, of total Honduran exports. They are largest coffee producer in Central America and the sixth largest in the world.

COCOA

After a disappointing close Monday, July Cocoa was higher early Tuesday and back in the vicinity of Monday’s high. Ivory Coast farmers told Reuters that rainfall was mainly below average last week in most of the nation’s cocoa-growing regions but was sufficient to boost the size and quality of the mid-crop. They are in the midst of their rainy season, which typically runs from April to mid-November, and farmers say that rains have been uneven. The did say many beans were currently being harvested and they were expecting to pick more pods this month before the supply from the bush starts to fall in July. They also thought more beans would leave the bush in July compared with the same month last year.

COTTON

December Cotton was higher early Tuesday after closing well below its high on Monday but still higher on the day. The weekly Crop Progress report showed US plantings are slightly behind the average pace, with 66% of the US crop planted as of May 31, up from 53% the previous week and 64% a year ago and a five-year average for this date at 67%. Texas was 56% planted, down from the five-year average at 59%, Georgia was 72% planted versus a five-year average of 75%, Arkansas was 88% planted versus 91% on average, and Mississippi was 83% planted versus 80% on average. The crop was 7% squaring, the same as a year ago and the five year average for this date. The higher open on Monday was sparked by news that India had suspended customs duties on cotton imports for five months, as that would imply better opportunities for US cotton exports. India has been the fifth-largest buyer of US cotton for the 2025/26 marketing year so far, having purchased a total of 626,500 bales as of May 21. (The top buyer this year is Vietnam at 3.747 million bales.)  World Weather Inc. says West Texas will get frequent showers and thunderstorms this week which will improve soil moisture for planting, emergence and establishment of cotton, but next week will trend drier.

SUGAR

July Sugar was slightly lower early Tuesday but in the upper part of Monday’s range. Higher crude oil, concerns over El Nino, and perhaps a bit of an oversold condition following last week’s bearish UNICA report on Brazilian center-south sugar production contributed to the rally. The UNICA report was bearish because both cane crushing and sugar production for the second half of April came in above expectations. The report showed sugar production was higher than last year, despite a greater emphasis on ethanol production from cane that would limit sugar output. The cane crush was so strong it pulled sugar production higher.

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