Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government in 23rd day of partial shutdown and no end in sight. Grains are mixed. US stocks are mixed. USD is higher. Crude is sharply higher and near $61 on new US and EU sanctions on Russia oil companies. Gold is higher finding support near 4,000. Russia increased attacks on Ukraine after Trump/Putin meeting was cancelled. Greer and Bessent will meet with China counterparts. EU and Black Sea wet. Argentina wet. Rains forecast for Brazil. Rains are forecast for US plains.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 10.55. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were higher, palmoil and soyoil were lower. China crush margins negative with China lowering hog herd. SMZ is lower but above 100 DMA. Soymeal demand remains strong. BOZ stuck between 20 day and 100 day moving averages. China still not buying US soybeans and may soon tap reserves for crush. Talk of Trump/XI meeting has slowed US farmer selling. No weekly US soybean or daily sales but total commit is still estimated to be down 32 pct vs last year. Brazil soybean planting pace is ahead of average with rains in forecast. Argentina peso is lower ahead of key elections. Argentina could see record soybean crop.
CORN
CZ is near 4.21. Some feel recent corn rally linked to talk of lower IA corn yields. US farmer slowed new selling. No weekly US corn or daily sales but total commit is still estimated to be up 60 pct vs last year with US export price competitive to most buyers. Weekly ethanol production was up 3 pct vs ly, stocks were down 1 pct vs ly. US and Brazil domestic ethanol demand remains strong. Argentina peso lower ahead of October 26. Argentina could see record corn crop.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.03. KWZ is near 4.89. MWZ is near 5.49. US S and C plains could see weekend rains. EU and Black Sea rains slowing cash movement. Russia attacks slowing Ukraine logistics. Argentina and Australia will soon harvest record crops. Record Argentina yield could question protein level. This could help US HRW. No weekly wheat export sales data but commit to date is estimated above ly and USDA est. Some est US final exports closer to 25.6 mmt vs USDA est of 24.5.
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