ADMIS News
SUGAR
March Sugar was higher early Wednesday but was confined to the lower half of Monday’s big range down off the collapse in the Brazilian currency. The sugar market has been supported since July by declining forecasts for global supply, with heat and drought damaging Europe’s beet crop and a lackluster monsoon lowering expectations for India’s cane crop. Heavy rains in Brazil in June-August slowed harvest and crushing activity and lower sugar content in the cane, and this has resulted in reduced production and lower exports. With the rainy season coming on, they are running out of time. World Weather Inc. expects rain to return to Parana, Sao Paulo and southern Sul de Minas late this week and into the weekend and continue in much of the same region next week.
COFFEE
This week’s selloff in December Coffee may have been initiated by the collapse in the Brazilian real but the market has continued to decline even though the real has stabilized, albeit at a lower level. The decline in the Brazilian currency does increase the incentive for farmers and exporters to sell their crops, which likely keeps a bearish bias in the market. Rains mixed with sunshine in Brazil are considered beneficial to the 2027 crop. World Weather Inc. expects the trend to continue through the first half of November, which would be good for cherry development. Rain was also common across coffee areas in Colombia and western Venezuela earlier this week, and regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the next week, leaving soil moisture supportive of coffee development. ICE certified arabica stocks fell 788 bags on Tuesday to 224,822, their lowest since September 15 when stocks were down to 217,646, a 26-year low. The amount pending review increased by 5,025 bags to 36,101; all are from Brazil.
COCOA
December Cocoa was lower early Wednesday as weather updates out of West Africa continued to show chances of rain. World Weather Inc. said periodic showers and thunderstorms are likely across the region over the next week to ten days. The distribution will be erratic and some areas may not get enough to counter evaporation, but the worst fears regarding El Nino have yet to materialize. It is not unusual for net drying to occur at this time of year away from the coast. ICE cocoa stocks fell 4,950 bags on Tuesday to 3.680 million after reaching their highest level since May 27, 2024 on Monday. This was their first daily decline in more than two weeks and only their second in a month. Estimates from earlier this week that cumulative Ivory Coast port arrivals had reached just 158,500 metric tons as of Sunday versus 214,000 at this point last year and a five-year average of 259,600 highlight a slow start for the marketing year.
COTTON
December Cotton was slightly higher early Wednesday after falling to its lowest level since October 5 on Tuesday. The US harvest is fully underway, which is pressuring the market, and the question is whether cash buyers will emerge at the October low around 77.00, or perhaps 75.00? World Weather Inc. says the dry bias will continue for another week in the Delta and southeast, but rain is possible after that. West Texas and Oklahoma may seem some rain this week that will delay harvest and could cause some temporary yellowing of the fibers. The dollar extended its rally overnight to reach its highest level since the peak day on October 14, and the strong currency makes US cotton less competitive of the global market. Brazil is the world’s largest exporter, having replaced the US in that role three years ago. The weaker real does put them in a better position to export. Through September, Brazil had exported around 1.369 million bales since the marketing year began on August 1, while the US had exported 1.529 million by October 1. The upward bias in crude oil lends some support on ideas it make polyester more expensive.
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