Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Many countries remain on holiday. Grains are mostly higher. Crude is near $59. Talk of Trump threatening sanctions on buyers of Iran oil supportive. US Dollar is lower. US stocks are higher. Gold, silver and copper are higher. US S/C plains is wet. N plains dry. N Germany and Poland drying. N China is dry. W Ukraine and N Russia rain. E Ukraine and S Russia dry. FAO food index up 7.6 pct vs ly. Meat up 4.3 pct, Dairy up 23 pct, Cereal up .5 pct, vegoil up 21 pct, sugar down 11 pct. Apple est $900 mil dollar Q2 tariff hit.
CORN
CN is near 4.71. Dalian corn futures are closed for holiday. Talk of increase competition from Brazil and Ukraine and feed wheat dropped CN-CZ spread to 25. Still, US corn export commit is up 26 pct vs ly and USDA up 11. Turkey is reducing import tax for 1.0 mmt for MJJ. Could buy Ukraine corn. Some are looking for US 24/25 carryout near 1,500 vs USDA 1,465 and 25/26 2,020. Others are 1,465 and 2,280. 24/25 key is US exports.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.53. Sales to China railed SN. Dalian and Malaysian futures remain closed for holiday. Some are looking for US 24/25 soybean carryout near 400 vs USDA 374 and 25/26 650. Others are 340 and 585. 24/25 key is US exports. US soybean export commit is up 13 pct vs ly and USDA up 8. US March soybean crush was 206.6 mil bu. End of March soyoil stocks 2,079 mil lbs, 88 pct of ly. Soymeal disappearance was up 9 pct vs last year and 4th largest on record. Rising lysine prices favor increase soymeal use. SN building support near 10.40. First resistance 10.70. Choppy trade continues due to US summer weather unknow, political unknown and currency volatility.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.36. KWN is near 5.33. MWN is near 5.99. US old crop wheat export commit up 14 pct vs ly and USDA up 16. Canada wheat exports to date 20.1 mmt vs 18.4 ly. Argentina exports 4.8 mmt vs 2.0 ly. Some are looking for US 2025/26 wheat carryout near 863, others 785. Key is final crop size and exports. World wheat trade in flux with buyers’ hand to mouth and for now, no real weather concerns.
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