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Brazil Weather Front & Center


Cocoa prices were able to regain upside momentum and are now on track for a positive monthly reversal. If global risk sentiment continues to improve, cocoa should be able to extend this recovery move. Strength in European equities provided carryover support to the cocoa market as that may help to soothe concern with near-term Euro zone demand prospects.


Brazilian weather will be a front-and-center issue over the rest of this week, which leaves coffee vulnerable to further volatility. Brazilian Arabica growing areas are likely to have cold weather again today and Friday, with the coldest conditions in Parana state.


December cotton remains in a solid uptrend and there is still no technical sign of a short-term peak with the move to new contract highs. The nearby contract has reached its highest level since February. The dollar was lower, and this was supportive to cotton prices.


Sugar prices may not be as vulnerable to Brazilian frost conditions as the coffee market, but it has been underpinned by renewed strength in key outside markets. Although the market will be driven by Brazilian weather over the rest of this week, sugar should remain well supported on any near-term pullbacks.

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