Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are down another 2.4 pct. Crude is lower on talk OPEC will increase daily production in May. Gold, silver and copper are lower. Trade will watch countries reaction to US tariffs. China announced 34 pct tariff on US goods, 15 pct corn and wheat and 10 pct sorghum. UN FAO food index was unch from Feb but up 6.9 pct vs ly. Cereal, meat and vegoil higher and sugar and rice lower.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 9.88. US tariffs are bearish soybean demand to China. Japan, Taiwan and S Korea tariffs also bearish. Dalian futures were closed. Canada canola oil could be exempt from US tariffs. Canada season to date canola exports are 6.9 mmt vs 3.0 ly. There is no deal yet on the would allow US soyoil can get preferential treatment for India. US soybean commit is up 14 pct vs ly and USDA up 8. Soymeal commit is 11.4 mmt vs 10.4 ly. Soyoil 925 mt vs 83 ly. July soybean board crush margin rallied to 145 and highest since October. Argentina soybean crop rating improved but crop was left at 48.6 mmt vs USDA 49.0.
CORN
CK is near 4.50. Japan, Taiwan and S Korea tariffs could be bearish. Mexico to corn may be exempt from new tariffs. S/E Brazil forecast is dry. US Delta and SC Midwest forecast is wet. US west and central Midwest forecast is warmer and drier. IL, IN and OH rains and US south Midwest and SE rains could slow corn plantings there. US corn export commit is up 24 pct vs ly and USDA up 7. Argentina corn harvest is 20 pct done. Crop ratings improved over previous rating and ly.
WHEAT
WK is lower and near 5.24. KWK is near 5.58. MWK is near 5.82. EU weather maps have pushed Russia rains not next week. US plains forecast is warm and dry. US SRW crop areas could see heavy rains. US SRW export price is lowest of all origin to buyers. Across the board 10 pct tariff on imports to US could impact US wheat export demand especially to Asian buyers. Australia could pick up Asian wheat demand. Canada wheat into US may be exempted from new tariffs. US wheat export commit is up 13 pct vs ly and USDA up 18. Higher Euro pressured Matif wheat futures. Russia latest crop rating suggest only 5 pct poor vs Nov est of 27 pct.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
