Written Commentary
MORNING LIVESTOCK FUTURES OUTLOOK
LIVE CATTLE
The war in Israel, other than fear of it possibly spreading to other countries in the Middle East and the possibility of crude oil prices rising, should have little effect to US beef prices. Over the past two years beef exports to the area have been dropping at a rapid rate because countries in the area have been buying more beef from Brazil. For 2023 exports to Egypt are down 36%, the United Arab Emirates exports have fallen 46% and Kuwait exports are down 62%.
Live Cattle futures trade was light Tuesday. Feedlot managers looking at the low slaughter and slightly improving boxed beef market are feel prices should be better this week. For the packer, they are going to kill exactly the number of cattle needed to match contracts and daily beef orders.
LEAN HOGS
The CME Pork Index has been moving slowly lower but it has remained stronger than the CME Lean Hog Index. This is positive to the point that packers want to keep slaughter up. Packers will maintain slaughter but will slow it if hog prices start going against pork prices.
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