ADMIS News
COCOA
March Cocoa was higher early Thursday following a selloff on Wednesday in which the market avoided testing the last Friday’s contract lows. Apparently the Ivory Coast regulator, the CCC, is rushing to buy cocoa and get it stored in more secure conditions to reduce spoilage. Farmers are reportedly using cheap nylon bags, which trap heat and moisture as opposed to using traditional jute bags that breathe, and this is hastening deterioration and causing quality issues.
COFFEE
March Coffee was slightly lower early Thursday, as the market continued its selloff following this week’s break below a six month consolidation. The trade seems resigned to a strong Brazilian crop in 2026/27. We have seen forecasts between 69.3 and 72.5 million bags. A 70,000-bag number would be a new record, the previous one being 69.9 million in 2020/21, according to data from the USDA. The difference between then and now is higher robusta output. This estimates for 2026/27 arabica production have ranged from 44.8 million to 49.0 million, which would be up from 38.0 million in 2025/26. The record is 49.7 million from 2020/21 (USDA). Estimates for robusta range from 24.3-25.4 million. The current record is 25.0 million from 2025/26, and this compares to 20.2 million in back in 2020/21. Itau BBA put out an estimate on Wednesday calling for a Brazil crop of 63.3 million bags, with arabica at 44.8 million and robust at 24.5 million. This is considered an “on-year” in the arabica cycle, and at least one agronomist has suggested that it is an “off year” for the robusta crop in their (less impactful) biennial cycle. World Weather Inc. expects frequent shower and thunderstorm activity in Brazil’s coffee production region through the coming week. All production areas will be impacted at one time or another and sufficient amounts will occur to support long term crop development.
COTTON
March Cotton fell to another new contract low early Thursday. The market has not benefited from the demand side of the equation this week, and adding insult to injury was a large delivery of certified stocks. However, this morning’s Export Sales report showed USDA cotton export sales for the week ending January 29 at 249,836 bales for the 2025/26 (current) marketing year and 114,884 for 2026/27 for a total of 364,720. This was up from 218,630 the previous week and was back above 300,000 for the third time in four weeks. The market has not shown much support from the recent threats to Australia’s crop after extreme heat hit that nation last week. Dryland areas especially need moisture to recover. South Texas cotton areas are expected to stay dry for much of the next two weeks, raising concerns about planting moisture in early March. West Texas will also continue to be drier than usual.
SUGAR
The trade has been seeing updates from the Dubai Sugar Conference this week, and for the most part the Analysts are calling for another global surplus in 2026/27 but a smaller than the one in 2025/26. Earlier this week Covrig Analytics put the 2026/27 surplus at 1.4 million tons versus 4.7 million for 2025/26. They did warn that the outlook could change if El Niño emerges later this year, as that could reduce monsoon rainfall in Thailand and India. Another theme coming out of the conference is that low sugar prices are encouraging divergence to more ethanol production, as well as discouraging beet plantings. Tereos expects EU sugar beet planting acreage to fall 6%-7% in 2026/27, and Czarnikow forecast a 5% decline.
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