Written Commentary
MORNING LIVESTOCK FUTURES OUTLOOK
CATTLE COMPLEX
Live Cattle were higher Monday on news of changed and lower tariffs with China and change with Britain on exports. The possibility of increased exports with China or at least back to levels before China stopped taking US beef and pork is likely. January – March 2025 exports were 44,694 mt up from same period in 2024 4%. China total beef imports from US. in 2024 were 179,464 mt – down 5% from 2023. The United Kingdom buys a little beef from the US but it does have restrictions on cattle fed hormones and certain additives. From January-march 2025 it bought 726 mt up 55% from the same period a year ago and for 2024 it bought 1,970 mt down 13% from 2023.
Possibly the most bullish cattle news, quarantines have restarted of cattle and feeder cattle from Mexico because more new world screw worm infections have been detected. The US needs Mexican imports.
PORK COMPLEX
May and June hogs were higher Monday but may going off the board this week and premium to cash that has been moving slowly lower and June that is $8.31 over the CME Lean Hog Index, at this time expect bear spreads June through august to remain. In 2024 Mexico increased beef and pork purchased in order to fight inflation but there were subsidies on imports for feed grains, pigs and pork.
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