Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher on OPEC est of higher demand and drop in US inventories. Gold is higher before US CPI data.
SU is near 10.66. US soybean export sales are estimated at 200-600 mt vs 228 last week. China finally bought US soybeans. Market reaction was negative. Will this be it? China is near est total US soybean commit. Some feel China crushers are uncovered for Sep-Feb. Still, China soybean and soymeal futures are at 4 month lows. Dalian palmoil prices are lower with Malaysia stocks near 4 month high. Trade est US 2023/24 soybean carryout at 355 vs USDA 350 and 2024/25 at 449 vs USDA 455.
CU is near 4.00. US domestic and export basis is firm. CU-CZ spread is in to -9. US corn exports sales are estimated at 300-800 mt vs 357 last week. Dalian corn prices continued lower raising questions about imports. New CONAB est will be watched. Est for safrina crop range from CONAB 88 mmt to 100 mmt Trade est US 2023/24 corn carryout at 2,049 vs USDA 2,022 and 2024/25 at 2,312 vs USDA 2,102. Next weeks US Midwest temps could be above normal, rainfall near normal.
WU is near 5.66. Black Sea and EU prices remain soft. Trade est US 2024/25 wheat carryout at 788 vs USDA 758. Trade est US 2024 all wheat crop at 1,909 vs USDA previous est of 1,875 and 1,812 ly, Winter wheat is est at 1,316 vs 1,295 previous.. Spring wheat crop is est at 521 vs 468 ly. Matif and Australia futures are lower. USDA has lowered EU wheat crop in July, 4 out of last 5 years. Black Sea prices are cheapest but August World trade is thin. Ukraine and Russia heat remains.
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