Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government in 22nd day of partial shutdown and no end in sight. Grains are mixed. US stocks are unch. USD is higher. Crude is higher near $58. India may agree to reduce Russia oil imports. Gold is slightly lower. Trump meeting with Putin cancelled. Trump XI meeting in doubt. US will give farmers $3 bil, reopen FSA office for farm, payments/loans. US Midwest dry. S plains dry. S Brazil rains. W Brazil showers, E Brazil dry. Argentina is wet.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 10.51. Talk that US crushers need to buy soybeans is offering support. SX is now over all key moving averages and approaching overbought. SMZ is testing the 100 DMA. BOZ stuck between 20 day and 100 day moving averages. China still not buying US soybeans and may soon tap reserves for crush. Talk of Trump/XI meeting has slowed US farmer selling. Conab est Brazil soybean crop at 175 mmt on 121 million acres. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were lower. Hog herd down. China Oct-Sep soybean imports were 109.4 mmt vs 109.2 ly. Vegoil imports 8.8 mmt vs 10.6 ly. Cooking oil exports 2.7 mmt vs 2.8 ly, mostly to EU. US impots .6 mmt vs 1.3 ly. Matif sunoil sharply higher.
CORN
CZ is near 4.20. Some feel recent corn rally linked to talk of lower IA corn yields. Increase US farmer selling is offering resistance. Lack of USDA November report, US export sales data and CFTC report is bearish. Some feel final US corn yields needs to drop below 177 to push futures higher. US and Brazil domestic ethanol demand remains strong. Conab est Brazil corn crop at 138 mmt with ist and 2nd crop acres but 3rd crop acres lower. Some private est closer to 140. Argentina corn 30 pct planted with forecasted exports at 12.3 mmt and highest in 15 years. Key Argentina election is October 26.
WHEAT
WZ is near 4.99. KWZ is near 4.84. MWZ is near 5.45. NOAA 90 day forecast suggest below normal south plains rain and above normal temps. EU rains and Black Sea rains slowing cash movement. EU wheat exports down 11 pct vs ly. Russia attacks slowing Ukraine logistics. Argentina and Australia will soon harvest record crops. Record Argentina yield could question protein level. This could help US HRW.
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