Written Commentary
Base Metals
Copper: Copper prices are higher as focus regarding output curbs in China helped lift LME prices to all-time highs earlier in the session. Benchmark copper on the LME was 0.4% higher at $11,235 earlier in the morning after reaching an all-time peak at $11,294.5. Prices of the metal are up 28% so far in 2025. Top copper smelters in China will cut production by more than 10% in 2026 to counter overcapacity in the industry, which has led to smelters facing negative processing fees. The move follows comments by Chen Xuesen, Vice President of China’s Nonferrous Metal Industry association, who said on Wednesday that the state-backed association “firmly opposes any free and negative processing” of copper concentrate. However, skepticism in the markets remains has previous attempts to curb overcapacity in China have ultimately proved to be fruitless.
Elsewhere, the RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9 in November from 50.6 in October, hitting its lowest level since July and missing forecasts of 50.5. The survey showed a drop in factory activity as output and new orders remained stagnant amid job cuts and low purchasing levels. However, business sentiment improved due to expectations of new government policies and expansion plans. Looking ahead, markets will focus on US ISM manufacturing PMI data out later in the morning. Forecasts are expecting a reading of 49.0.
Meanwhile, China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.2 in November from 49.0 in October, marking the eight-straight month of declining factory activity. Foreign sales, new orders, and employment indices all remained weak, reflecting similar results to the RatingDog’s survey.
Zinc: Zinc gained 1% to $3,087. Focus has once again shifted to low zinc levels at LME-registered warehouses. The premium for the cash zinc contract over the three-month forward is around $245. An increase of 190% since the end of October.
Aluminum: Aluminum climbed 0.5% to $2,871.
Tin: Tin was down 0.7% to $38,895.
Lead: Lead rose 0.7% to $1,991.
Nickel: Nickel added 0.5% to $14,900.
Precious Metals
Gold: Gold prices climbed to their highest level in six weeks as expectations that the Fed will lower interest rates next week and a weaker dollar provided the non-yielding metal with a tail-wind. Markets are pricing over an 87% chance that the Fed will lower rates. Also providing support for gold was sentiment that Kevin Hassett will be named as the new Fed Chairman soon. President Trump on Sunday said that he has made his pick for the next Chairman, although declined to confirm that it was Hassett. Currently, Hassett has a 64% chance of getting the nomination per prediction market Kalshi. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the president would likely name the replacement before Christmas.
Focus today will rest on ISM manufacturing PMI data out at 9:00 a.m. CT for November. Forecasts are expecting a reading of 49.0, which would keep the index in contractionary territory but would be a step above October’s 48.7. Services PMI figures will follow on Wednesday and will be closely watched for any signals on the health of the labor market, given there will be no official data on it until after the Fed meets. The November ADP employment report on Wednesday and core PCE figures for September on Friday could give markets further cues on the Fed’s policy path.
Silver: Silver futures are up over 1.0% to $57.00. Silver is benefiting from the same factors as gold as well as expectations of improving industrial demand for next year.
Platinum: Platinum is up around 0.8% to $1,698.
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