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Choppy/Lower Trend Continues in Coffee


While the market has received data showing demand has held up fairly well during the second quarter, cocoa continues to be weighed down by the prospect of diminished chocolate consumption. As a result, the cocoa market is likely to need additional positive demand-side data in order to stabilize.


Coffee was able to put some brakes on its July selloff as it received fresh bullish supply news. With global markets continued to be rattled by high inflation, however, coffee may need more signs of improving demand in order to stabilize. The Brazilian currency also lifted clear of its recent lows with a 1% gain, and that provided carryover support as it will ease pressure on Brazil’s farmers to market their remaining coffee supplies.


December cotton closed sharply lower on Wednesday after trading to its lowest level since December 2. The US CPI number came in hot, and that raised concerns that the Fed will have to raise rates beyond the widely expected increases this month and September. Likewise, strong price increases across the world have raised concerns that other central banks will have to do the same, and this raises concerns about global demand. The 1-5-day forecast calls for no rain in west Texas but ample amounts around the rest of the cotton belt.


After a sluggish start to the week, sugar prices were able to regain upside momentum to extend their July recovery move. If key outside markets can maintain their strength, sugar may be heading for a retest of the mid-May highs. A more than 1% rebound in the Brazilian currency provided the sugar market with early support, as that eases pressure on Brazil’s Center-South mills to produce sugar for export.

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