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Cocoa in Overbought Condition


Cocoa may be in danger of a negative weekly key reversal and the market remains in an overbought condition. The steep decline in open interest suggests that short-covering is the fuel for the rally and this is not a good foundation for follow-thru to the upside.


While coffee has bullish Brazil supply developments to provide underlying support, that has not been enough to prevent a slide in prices. Unless there is a significant rebound in global risk sentiment, coffee could remain on the defensive.


The market looks vulnerable to a pullback as weak economic news could be seen as a bearish demand development. The market was pressured yesterday by a strong dollar and weak commodity prices, especially crude oil.


Sugar continues to have bullish supply-side developments that will underpin prices. With the market now on-track for a negative weekly key reversal, however, sugar will need to see a significant turnaround in key outside markets to avoid further downside price action.

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