ADMIS News
COCOA
March Cocoa is lower this morning and is close to yesterday’s 12-month lows. Reports of good growing conditions in West Africa, a stepped up arrivals pace in Ivory Coast, and the lifting of US tariffs on cocoa imports, specifically for Ecuador (the third largest producer in the world), have further eased supply concerns. However, the market is in technically oversold territory with prices having fallen from $9000+ per metric ton in May to their current $5300, and it may be asking too much to see additional downside without an intervening correction.
COFFEE
March Coffee is lower today but inside yesterday’s range-up day. The fact that Brazil still faces a 40% tariff on coffee exports to the US provides a bid under the market, even as the 10% tariffs from other producers has been lifted. Brazil and the US are reportedly in discussions about trade, but there has been no update since last week. The trade is also awaiting a decision by the US Supreme Court over the legality of the tariffs. Some Brazilian coffee has made its way to ICE warehouses in Europe, but Brazilian growers there are probably reluctant to commit top selling their product when the tariff situation in flux. Some 884 bags of Brazilian coffee was submitted to the ICE warehouse in Antwerp on Monday.
COTTON
March Cotton fell to a new contract low yesterday but reversed course and managed an outside day higher. The market also pressed up against the 9-day moving average, and a move above there today could give the bulls some hope. The fact that the market held up as well as did following last Friday’s USDA supply/demand report, which showed a surprisingly large increase in US and world production for 2025/26 may have given the bulls hope that the market has already absorbed the bearish news. Weekly export sales are due out on Thursday, and they will cover the week ending October 2, as the USDA works to catch up following the US government shutdowns.
SUGAR
Reuters reports the Indian government is considering raising the domestic floor price for sugar and ethanol to help mills deal with excess supplies and increase their ability to pay the government-fixed prices for cane (according to government and industry sources ). The seems to be a temporary fix, as higher prices will not help ease burdensome supplies. So far the government has allowed 1.5 million in export quotas for the 2025/26, but after India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories forecast a 2.5 million surplus this year, pressure could build on the government to allow more, which would put more sugar on the global market.
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