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Cocoa Production Slowdown & Uncertain Demand

COCOA

Since a 2-session/124 point downdraft in mid-December, cocoa prices have seen choppy action and have stayed under their 3 major moving average. Although risk appetites have started to weaken in front of year-end, cocoa still has a bullish supply outlook that should provide underlying support to the market.

COFFEE

While coffee prices continue to hold their ground above the 50-day moving average, the prospect of year-end profit-taking and index fund rebalancing selling has kept the market under pressure this week. Coffee still has a bullish supply outlook and improving demand prospects, but the market may slide further to the downside before it can find its footing.

COTTON

March cotton closed lower yesterday, having given up much of its gains from the breakout rally on Monday. The dollar was higher and the stock market lower, and both these factors were negative to cotton. Traders are generally optimistic about demand going forward, but there may have been some profit taking heading into the end of the year.

SUGAR

Sugar prices have been unable to sustain upside momentum following the holiday weekend and have held below their 50-day moving average since mid-December. With global risk sentiment taking a negative shift, sugar may remain on the defensive early in today’s action. Crude oil and RBOB gasoline extended their December rallies, which provided sugar with carryover support as that can give a boost to ethanol demand.

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