ADMIS News
COCOA
December Cocoa is slightly higher today after falling to its lowest level since November with the advance of the main crop harvest in west Africa. Higher farmgate prices in Ivory Coast and Ghana have encouraged a faster pace of deliveries. World Weather Inc expects sufficient rain during the next 7-10 days to maintain a favorable environment for cocoa development. 40% Ivory Coast was able to trace the origin of roughly 40% of its cocoa beans last season as it prepared for the EU’s anti-deforestation law, which was due to take effect on December 30 but was postponed for another year. ICE exchange stocks fell 8,203 bags yesterday to 1.915 million, their lowest since April 21.
COFFEE
December Coffee is near unchanged this morning and is continues to consolidate. One of the key drivers of the rally, the drop in ICE exchange stocks, continues, and the other main factor, the dry conditions in Brazil, continue to linger, but they could see relief soon. Apparently, the effect the 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports is not lost on President Trump, as Bloomberg reported that he brought up the cost of coffee in the US market during his conversation with Brazilian President Lula this week. Coffee traders in Vietnam say they expect the nation to produce 10% to 15% more good quality coffee beans this season thanks to the weather. They added that so far the beans are of good quality, but harvest is just beginning. Farmers said that the still-rainy weather may affect next year’s output. World Weather Inc. expects slowly increasing showers to evolve in Brazil over the next several days, but no general soaking rain is likely for a while. Showers and thunderstorms will have greater frequency and intensity next week at which time some new flowering and pollination is expected. Most of the coffee crop is still waiting for a general rain to induce additional flowering. Heavy rains in northern Vietnam have cause heavy flooding in some agricultural areas and has sparked some landslides, but the impact on coffee production is still unknown. It appears most of the damage is in the north and not in the main coffee production area in the Central Highlands.
COTTON
December Cotton fell through the April low for a time yesterday but did not follow through, and it is higher this morning, leaving a quasi-double bottom at 64.16 and 64.24. The most recent US fundamental data indicate a US crop that is in good shape and a slow pace of US export sales so far for 2025/26 (the slowest in 11 years). Sales had reached 36% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 53% for this point in the marketing year. It looks very unlikely that the USDA will release its monthly supply/demand report today nor the weekly Export Sales report, due to the government shutdown
SUGAR
March Sugar extended yesterday’s selloff overnight and fell through a minor support trendline. The rally off the September lows has corrected an oversold condition. Stronger production expected for Asia and an improvement from Brazil have helped drive prices to their lowest levels in four years, and there is a temptation to view the market has oversold, but supply is still the main theme. World Weather Inc. says the northern parts of center south Brazil will begin to get rain this weekend and that it will gradually increase next week, which should benefit sugarcane. Europe’s largest sugar producer Suedzucker said its second quarter operating profit (June-August) totaled 20 million euros versus 114 million euros in the same quarter the previous year (-82%), blaming slow sales in Europe and lower exports. Its 2025/26 operating profits are expected to be between 100 and 200 million euros, down from 350 million last year. A spokesperson said that EU sugar prices remain under pressure despite EU restrictions on sugar imports from Ukraine.
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