ADMIS News
COCOA
March Cocoa continued its recent consolidation pattern early Friday, with the drop-off in Ivory Coast arrivals lending support but good weather in west Africa suggesting main crop production could stay strong into the new year. Also lending support is the contract’s being included in the Bloomberg Commodity Index this year, which is expected encourage index fund buying this month. World Weather Inc expects some rain in Ivory Coast and Ghana this weekend into early next week that will result in a temporary boost in topsoil moisture and possibly a little delay to harvesting. Unusual rain in December likely limited harvest and drying and may one reason for the decline in arrivals. Ivory Coast farmers were optimistic about prospects for February and March. ICE cocoa stocks increased by 701 bags on Wednesday to 1.631 million. Stocks have increased in four of the past five sessions.
COTTON
An improvement in US cotton export sales recently has help lift the cotton market off contract lows. Wednesday’s update showed net sales of 182,680 bales for the 2025/26 (current) marketing year and 880 for 2026/27 for a total of 183,560 for the week ending December 18. This was down from 319,649 the previous week, but it was still the second highest since November 13. Cumulative sales for 2025/26 have reached 6.366 million bales, down from 7.207 million at this time last year and below the five-year average of 9.070 million and still the lowest since 2015/16. Sales have reached 57% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 73% for this point in the marketing year. The largest buyer this week was Vietnam at 89,673 bales, followed by Pakistan at 29,514. Shipments totaled 146,915 bales, up from 134,371 the previous week and the highest since October 23. Aside from the tariffs and other impediments to US export sales, lower crude oil prices increase the pressure from man-made fibers. The USDA released details on Wednesday about how much row crop farmers will receive next year from the Farmer Bridge Assistance program. The highest per-acre payments will be paid to rice farmers, who could receive $132.89 an acre, followed by cotton farmers, who would receive $117.35.
COFFEE
March Coffee has managed to hold support at the 50% retracement of the rally from the June low to the October high, but it has only managed a tepid recovery off that level. After a dry period last week, Brazil is seeing a return of a wetter pattern this week, which is good for the 2026/27 crop development. World Weather Inc. says showers and thunderstorms are likely through the coming week and that all coffee production areas will be impacted at one time or another. Some unusual rain in Dominican Republic could spark some off-season flowering. In Indonesia, the ground is saturated with moisture in much of the coffee region, which leaves a risk of flooding as an active weather pattern is expected to continue through the next week to ten days. All production areas will be impacted by multiple rounds of rain that will be light to moderate most often with some heavier amounts expected periodically.
SUGAR
March Sugar was slightly lower early Friday but inside the range of the previous two sessions. The global surplus expected for the 2025/26 marketing year may limit any upside potential despite the market having already declined to its lowest level since 2020. However, low prices appear to have already encouraged Brazilian cane crushers to switch their focus to ethanol production. We expect the UNICA update for Center-South Brazil cane crush and sugar production during the first half of December to be released next week. The last report showed that cumulative production for 2025/26 was running about 1.1% above a year ago. Sugar’s share of crush for the second half of November was 35.5% versus 44.6% for the same period in 2024. India is expects to export as much as 1.5 million metric tons of sugar in 2026. As of mid-December exporters were finding it difficult to secure sales because the local price in India was higher than the world prices. Some exporters were expecting the domestic price to fall to parity with the world price this month as more supply became available, but there was also talk of the government supporting the local prices to support farmers.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
