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Coffee Higher Outlook


Following a more than 600 point decline from mid-February to mid-March (losing more than 21% in value), cocoa’s ability to sustain upside momentum has relied n global demand concerns being soothed by stronger outside markets. After 4 positive daily results in a row, September cocoa saw an abrupt change in fortune s it fell from a new 2-week high to finish Friday’s trading session with a heavy loss. For the week, however, September cocoa finished with a gain of 25 points (1.1% higher).


While coffee continues to have trouble lifting clear of its contract low, its monthly price range during June has been its smallest since March of 2019. With the market dealing with a record Brazilian crop and with global demand concerns, coffee is showing some early signs that a longer-term low may be in. For the week, September coffee finished with a modest gain of 0.75 cent (0.8% higher) that was only the third positive weekly result over the past 11 weeks.


With mostly hot and very dry conditions expected for West Texas through July 12, the cotton market seems to be in position for another leg higher. Demand news remains strong, Texas crop ratings are already poor, and traders expect a lower planted area number in the USDA’s Acreage report on June 30. For Tuesday’s Acreage Report, traders are looking for US cotton planted area to come in around 13.153 million acres (estimates range from 12.5 to 13.75 million), down from the March estimate of 13.703 million.


After consolidating over the past few weeks, sugar appears to be making a turn towards the downside. For the week, October sugar finished with a loss of 56 ticks (4.6% lower) which was a second negative weekly result over the past 3 weeks. A negative shift in global risk sentiment fueled a selloff in energy markets, and that was a source of carryover pressure on sugar prices as it will weaken near-term Brazilian ethanol demand.

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