ADMIS News
COFFEE
July Coffee sold off yesterday after failing to capitalize on a move to new contract highs earlier this week. Low expectations for the Brazilian crop have been the main driver of the rally, but the approaching harvest in the main arabica-growing region of Minas Gerais may limit further upside in prices until delivery numbers start to be reported. Colombian coffee exports reached 3.59 million bags in the first quarter, a 20% increase from last year, according to the Federacion Nacional de Cafeteros. A report from USDA FAS this week put Guatemala’s coffee production for 2025/26 at 3.54 million bags, up from 3.53 million in 2024/25 and 3.47 million in 2023/24. World Weather Service said yesterday that all of the primary coffee production in Brazil will experience dry or mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures over the next week, as the rainy season is expected to come to an end. ICE certified stocks increased by 7,407 bags yesterday to 821,075, their highest since Monday. Stocks have been chopping around for the past several weeks, but they have not seen a weekly decline since April 4.
COCOA
July Cocoa is in a consolidation between the 50- and 100-day moving averages as the market weighs a recent improvement in rainy patterns for West Africa against expectations for a slow start to the mid-crop harvest after the dry conditions earlier this year. Recent grind/sales numbers have been down from year ago levels, thanks to high cocoa prices, but they have come in better than expected. World Weather Service said showers and thunderstorms will occur daily through the next week in West Africa and all cocoa areas will receive rain at one time or another during the period. The rainy pattern has been viewed as beneficial for the crop for later this summer. ICE certified stocks increased by 7,793 bags yesterday to 2.044 million, the highest since October 9. Stocks have increased 104,305 this week.
SUGAR
July Sugar extended this week’s selloff overnight to trade to its lowest level since January 23. The market has received some bearish supply news this week from Brazil, with the UNICA report indicating a strong start for Brazil’s Center-South 2025/26 production and from CONAB forecast for Brazil’s overall production to jump 4.4% this year. Deliveries against the May contract came in at 1.48 million metric tons, which was large but below last year’s May deliveries. The UNICA report showed sugar production totaled 731,000 tons in the first half of April, up 1.25% from a year ago. CONAB forecast Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar production at 45.9 million metric tons, up 4% from 2024/25 and a new record.
COTTON
July Cotton reversed higher overnight following five straight sessions of lower closes. Comments from China’s Commerce Ministry that Beijing was “evaluating” a proposal from Washington to hold talks regarding the tariffs have at offered some hope that there could be a resolution. An agreement could help stave off a global economic slowdown and ultimately benefit textile demand an US cotton sales. The market has found additional support this morning in the immediate aftermath of the US jobs report, which came in better than expected. Yesterday’s export sales report showed US cotton sales for the week ending April 24 totaled 108,363 bales for the 2024/25 (current) marketing year and of 32,912 for 2025/26. for a total of 141,275. This was down from 142,005 the previous week and the lowest since April 3. Sales have reached 107% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 106% for this point in the marketing year. Shipments for the week totaled 365,978 bales, up from 292,153 the previous week and ahead of the five-year average of 346,181. Malysia was the biggest buyer at 25,557 bales, followed by Bangladesh at 25,440, Indonesia at 24,778, Pakistan at 22,555, and Vietnam at 15,415. China bought 511 bales. The weekly Drought Monitor showed 21% of US cotton production was within an area experiencing drought as of April 29, the same as the previous week but up from 8% a year ago. This is a substantial improvement over earlier this year. 9As of March 4, 38% of US production was in an area experiencing drought.) World Weather Service says West Texas planting prospects are improving greatly with the recent rain and more in the forecast. Field conditions in the Delta have been improving recently, but the return of significant rain this weekend and again later next week may set back fieldwork again.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
