Written Commentary
BASE METALS
Copper: Copper prices are lower, with benchmark three-month copper on the LME falling 0.2% to $12,128. It is heading for a 5.5% weekly loss, the biggest since April 2025. Inflation risks are skewed to the upside, strengthening the dollar and causing a hawkish-tilt from several central banks, while concerns that higher energy prices will hurt economic growth dent sentiment. Copper looks like a market caught between structural bulls and cyclical sceptics. On one side, investors focused on grid build‑out, renewables and data‑center demand continue to view pullbacks as opportunities to maintain exposure to a constrained supply story. On the other, rising inventories, uneven Chinese property activity and slower factory growth in several major economies are encouraging macro funds to fade rallies and keep overall risk light.
Zinc: Zinc rose 0.8% to $3,096.
Aluminum: Aluminum steadied, up 1.1% to $3,287 after closing 4.4% lower on Thursday amid a broad liquidation of positions. Still, expectations of shortages have underpinned prices. LME aluminum stocks have fallen to their lowest since July. The war in Iran has affected deliveries from aluminum producers in the region that account for around 9% of global aluminum supply and sparked fears of disrupted imports of raw materials such as alumina to these producers via the Strait of Hormuz.
Tin: Tin dipped 0.1% to $43,500.
Lead: Lead gained 0.6% to $1,898.
Nickel: Nickel shed 0.4% to $16,925.
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold: Gold is firmer in early US trade, recovering a portion of yesterday’s sharp slide as the dollar stabilizes after its recent run‑up. Spot is indicated in a 4,660–4,700 USD/oz range this morning, roughly 0.5–1% above yesterday’s US close after a near‑4% drop on March 19. The rebound looks driven more by a pause in the dollar’s rally than by any clear shift in the macro data flow, with the DXY hovering just below the 100 mark and seeing limited follow‑through after Thursday’s losses.
Global markets are digesting a synchronized hawkish shift across major central banks layered on top of a worsening Middle East conflict and persistent energy‑driven inflation risks. This combination has driven a sharp repricing in rate expectations: OIS now prices the first full Fed cut only in mid‑2027, while European markets have swung from discounting cuts to pricing one to two ECB hikes next year. Inflation swaps, a gauge of the outlook for future consumer prices, spiked to a six-month peak of roughly 3.3% in one-year maturities. Suggesting that investors believe that the consumer price index will average more than 3% over the next 12 months, higher than the 2.4% year-on-year CPI reading for February.
Still, ongoing geopolitical risks and central‑bank reserve diversification continue to underpin longer‑term demand for bullion as a macro hedge, suggesting that while the near‑term balance of risks is tilted toward volatility around US data and Fed‑speak, structural support from official‑sector buying and strategic investors remains in place on deeper dips.
Silver: Silver futures are up roughly 1-2% since yesterday’s close. For silver, the broader context is one of elevated volatility and a market still dominated by speculative rather than strategic flows. Silver remains down meaningfully from its January highs, and the wide 52‑week range highlights the role of speculative participation. With little in the way of fresh hard data on industrial demand, particularly for solar and electronics, traders appear to be using silver as a leveraged expression of views on the dollar and real rates, while also responding to signals from the base‑metals complex.
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