Written Commentary
Base Metals
Copper: Copper prices fell, as the beginning of a week-long holiday in China coincides with the end of the third quarter, prompting a wave of profit-taking. Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.8% to $10,331. In China, the Yangshan copper premium, which reflects demand for copper imported into the country, fell 6% to $50 a ton, a six-week low, ahead of the October 1-8 National Day holidays, which usually reduce overall trading activity.
China’s factory activity showed signs of improvement in September, according to both official and private surveys. The official manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 49.8 in September from 49.4 in August, the National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday. The subindex for factory production rose to 51.9 from 50.8 in August. New orders rose to 49.7 from 49.5, while new export orders improved to 47.8 from 47.2. Meanwhile, RatingDog’s China General Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in September 2025, surpassing both August’s 50.5 and the market consensus of 50.3. This marked the highest reading since March, matching the level seen that month. Output grew at the fastest pace in three months, while new export orders rose for the first time in six months.
Deflationary pressures continued to persist in China. Output prices in both official and private surveys continued to decline, despite Beijing’s so-called anti-involution campaign aimed at curbing aggressive price cuts and easing deflation risks. Markets are expecting growth in China to cool in the coming months as effects of fiscal stimulus wind down.
Zinc: Zinc added 0.3% to $2,950.5.
Aluminum: Aluminum fell 0.1% to $2,677.
Tin: Tin lost 0.6% to $35,295 a ton.
Lead: Lead gained 0.4% to $2,002 after data showed that lead inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 15% from Friday to their lowest level since February.
Nickel: Nickel lost 0.4% to $15,265.
Precious Metals
Gold: Gold futures slipped as traders booked profits after prices hit a record high earlier in the session. Markets are bracing for a government shutdown after Trump and Republicans met with Democrats in the Oval Office on Monday but failed to strike a deal to avert a halt to funding. Vice President JD Vance said he believed the government was heading for a shutdown. Lawmakers have until 12:01 a.m. ET Wednesday to reach an agreement. If the government shuts down, the government’s economic data releases will halt during the stoppage, likely delaying Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Uncertainty as a result of the government shutdown is likely to provide support for gold. Prices are also likely to find support from safe-haven demand amid geopolitical conflicts in Eastern Europe and the middle east.
Silver: December silver contracts lost more than 1.5% after touching highs earlier in the session. The Silver Institute projected the silver market will end the year at a deficit for a fifth consecutive time as global output is expected to total 844 million ounces in 2025, 100 million ounces short of demand. China’s solar installation grew slightly in August as pricing reforms drove companies to front-load installations earlier in June, but solar cell exports from the country were last seen surging by 40%.
Platinum: Platinum futures fell, with December contracts down more than 2% at $1,576.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
