Written Commentary
COPPER
Copper futures pulled back in the overnight session as renewed tariff threats from President Trump dampened risk appetite and fueled concerns over an economic slowdown as a result of tariffs. Despite the decline, copper prices remain near record highs reached last week after Trump also announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, set to take effect August 1. The measure is aimed at boosting domestic copper production and reducing reliance on refined imports. However, analysts warn the policy could strain US supply, as the US imports nearly half of its copper consumption. The impact could be amplified by limited refining and smelting capacity, with only two operating smelters in the US, raising concerns about supply bottlenecks.
Copper prices outside the US could be weighed down near-term as large copper producers look to shift supplies elsewhere. Global copper traders are offering cargoes to Chinese buyers as they look to offload metal no longer able to reach the US before President Donald Trump’s 50% copper tariff deadline. China is the world’s largest copper consumer, and the number of offers by overseas sellers has been picking up since late June and is now the highest in months, per a Chinese copper trader.
Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net buyers of 4,743 contracts of copper for the week ending July 8, increasing their net long to 36,287.
GOLD
Gold futures are little changed after touching three-week highs earlier in the session. Gold has gotten a lift from renewed trade tensions after President Trump threatened multiple countries with higher-than-expected levies, including 30% on the EU and Mexico over the weekend. Both the European Union and Mexico described the tariffs as unfair and disruptive, while the EU said it would extend its suspension of countermeasures to US tariffs until early August and continue to press for a negotiated settlement. Further escalation in trade tensions will likely provide upward support for gold.
Investors also await US CPI inflation data due on Tuesday for clues on the Fed’s monetary policy path. Markets are expecting 50 bps of easing from the Fed this year; gold benefits in a lower interest rate environment; any lowering of interest rates will be supportive of gold prices.
Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net sellers of 1,855 contracts of gold for the week ending July 8, reducing their net long to 134,842.
Strong central bank demand continues to support gold prices, with a recent World Gold Council survey showing global central banks expect to increase their gold holdings. In 2025, central banks are on track to buy 1,000 metric tons—well above the previous decade’s average of 400–500 tons—with several African nations like Namibia, Rwanda, Uganda, and Madagascar planning to expand their reserves.
SILVER
Silver futures are higher, as the white metal trades near a 14-year high and outperforms gold as investors look to safe haven assets. Investors are also concerned over potential tariffs on more metals. Reports that Indian investors have been stockpiling silver as demand for investment and industry has outpaced supply in the country have also remained supportive of prices. India is the world’s largest consumer of silver.
The long-term outlook for silver remains positive, driven by its essential role in semiconductors, solar panels, and other clean-energy technologies, sectors that continue to attract substantial global investment. That demand has remained robust despite broad headwinds faced in the last few months as a result of tariffs. South Korea’s exports rebounded in June largely on brisk semiconductor shipments, indicating the importance of and demand for the technology, despite challenges from higher US tariffs weighing on global trade. Recent data highlights this trend: China significantly increased its wind and solar capacity in the first quarter of 2025, while solar power generation in Europe surged 30% year-over-year during the same period. Additionally, the structural supply-demand deficit remains favorable for silver, with the market expected to remain in a deficit for the fifth straight year.
For silver, managed money traders were net sellers of 2,020 contracts, reducing their net long to 43,605.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
