Written Commentary
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold:
Seeing the noted gains in gold and silver this morning as a sign that the downward bias may have shifted to the upside. Certainly, a weaker US dollar, a measure of stabilization in treasuries and hopeful end of war comments from Trump provide a more solid fundamental foundation as compared to action over the prior seven trading sessions. However, we are skeptical of predictions from the US President suggesting the war will not be a prolonged affair as Iran continues to be very stubborn and driven by a thinning theocracy leaders.
Silver:
The silver market has become more oversold from a technical perspective with open interest reaching the lowest level since the end of April and falling by 18% since August 17th.
BASE METALS
Copper:
Over the prior five trading sessions the copper market has seen its focus shift away from tight supply and toward concerns of slowing demand. On the other hand, the copper trade has shown amazing bullish resiliency off the tight supply situation. Nonetheless, developing weakness in global equities, no end in sight for the war and “so far” little evidence of Chinese bargain hunting buying signaling an end to the slide in prices.
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