Copper Tariffs Have Arrived

COPPER

Copper futures pulled back after settling nearly 10% higher Tuesday, reaching all-time highs following an announcement from President Trump that he would be levying a 50% tariff on copper imports into the US. Trump did not specify when the tariff would take effect. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in an interview on CNBC that the copper tariffs would likely be put in place by the end of July or August 1. Contracts jumped over 13% during trading, that was the largest single-day price surge in records going back to 1968. Trump also said he would soon announce tariffs on semiconductors, although similarly did not offer a tariff level or date. The Commerce Department has been conducting investigations into tariffs on those products under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows tariffs to be applied on goods considered essential for national security.

Chile, the world’s top copper producer, is in wait-and-see mode after US President Donald Trump announced a surprise 50% tariff on imports of the red metal, with the Andean nation blindsided while its top miner held out hope of exemptions. In a phone call with Reuters shortly after Trump’s remarks, the chairman of Chilean state miner Codelco Maximo Pacheco said the firm wanted to know which copper products would be included and if the tariff would hit all countries. Chile’s foreign ministry said in a statement that the Andean nation had not received any formal official communication regarding the implementation of US copper tariffs. Chile is the largest supplier of copper to the US.

The threat of tariffs on the metal used in the power and construction industries has created a massive premium for copper prices on COMEX above those on the London Metal Exchange, which are currently around $9,585 a ton vs $12,330 per metric ton in the US. The high premium is likely to attract more metal to the United States.

Chile exported $4.67 billion of copper in June, up 17.5% from the same month a year earlier, the central bank said on Monday. Meanwhile, production at Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo jumped 11% year-on-year to 112,009 metric tons of copper in the second quarter, the company said in a statement on Tuesday. Output rose despite seismic challenges that disrupted operations earlier this year. The Canadian miner resumed operations in June and cut its 2025 production guidance by nearly 30% to between 370,000 tons and 420,000 tons.

GOLD

Gold prices fell again on Wednesday, on growing optimism that more trade deals and lower tariffs could be negotiated between the US and its trading partners following the August 1 deadline extension.

President Trump reiterated threats of an additional 10% tariff on countries that align themselves with the BRICS group. China warned the Trump administration against reigniting trade tensions and threatened to retaliate against nations that strike deals with the US to exclude it from their supply chains. Negative news on the trade front is likely to add to golds upside as tariffs dampen countries economic outlooks and stir further uncertainty surrounding economic growth.

Strong central bank demand continues to support gold prices, with a recent World Gold Council survey showing global central banks expect to increase their gold holdings. In 2025, central banks are on track to buy 1,000 metric tons—well above the previous decade’s average of 400–500 tons—with several African nations like Namibia, Rwanda, Uganda, and Madagascar planning to expand their reserves.

SILVER

Silver futures are lower as markets asses a possible tariffs on semiconductors, in which silver is a key ingredient. President Donald Trump announced updated tariff rates on 14 countries that have not reached trade agreements with Washington, including major exporters such as Japan and South Korea, both of which will face 25% levies.

The long-term outlook for silver remains positive, driven by its essential role in semiconductors, solar panels, and other clean-energy technologies, sectors that continue to attract substantial global investment. That demand has remained robust despite broad headwinds faced in the last few months as a result of tariffs. South Korea’s exports rebounded in June largely on brisk semiconductor shipments, indicating the importance of and demand for the technology, despite challenges from higher US tariffs weighing on global trade. Recent data highlights this trend: China significantly increased its wind and solar capacity in the first quarter of 2025, while solar power generation in Europe surged 30% year-over-year during the same period. Additionally, the structural supply-demand deficit remains favorable for silver, with the market expected to remain in a deficit for the fifth straight year.

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