Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stock are higher. USD is slightly higher. Crude is lower. Gold is higher on new buying as safe haven due to recent stock market rout. Copper is bouncing off key support. Trade focusing on Thursdays non-farm payroll data. South America weather is mostly favorable for crops.
CFTC will begin releasing back data today starting with numbers from Sep 30.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.48. There were no SX soybean deliveries. USDA announced 792 US soybeans sold to China. Some estimate total sales near 2.0 mmt and final sales close to 3.0 mmt vs US/China deal of buying 12.0. Some feel this is more political than economic with China paying $1.05-$1.15 higher than Brazil. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were lower. There is some talk that China may export soybean products due to oversupply. Brazil rains are moving into dry C and NE crop areas. ABIOVE est Brazil Sep crush at 4.14 mmt vs 4.66 ly and crop at 177.7 mmt vs USDA 175 and some private est closer to 180.0 . S&P Global est US 2026 soybean acres near 84.5 mil vs 81.1 in 2025. 2026 crop was estimated at 4.51 billion vs 4.25 in 2025. SF tested 11.69 before backing off. 11.37 is support in a wacky tech picture vs bearish fundamentals.
CORN
CH is near 4.49. Support near 4.46 20 DMA. Tuesdays corn futures rally linked to higher domestic corn basis. Brazil corn prices were lower due to higher Real. North Brazil export prices now below US gulf. Dalian corn futures were lower. S Korea corn purchase prices was highest since April. S&P Global est US 2026 corn acres near 95.0 mil vs 98.7 in 2025. 2026 crop was estimated at 16.1 billion vs 16.8 in 2025.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.60. KWH is near 5.42. MWH is near 5.85. WH is near 5.60 resistance. WH support 5.40. Argentina wheat futures are making new lows. BAGE est Argentina harvest near 17 pct with crop est at 24 mmt. Rains are forecast for US HRW crop areas, S&P Global est US 2026 wheat acres near 44.0 mil vs 45.3 in 2025. 2026 crop was estimated at 1.8 billion vs 2.0 in 2025. They est 2026 HRW crop at 737 mil bu vs 804 in 2025, SRW 334 vs 353 in 2025.
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