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Corn Rally Linked to Lower IA Yields?

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

US government in 21st  day of partial shutdown and no end in sight. Grains are mixed. US stocks are lower. USD is higher. Crude is higher but still near $57. Gold is lower. Trump to meet Putin in next 2 weeks. Rains are in OH and MN. C Brazil is dry. Argentina is wet.

 

 

corn harvest

 

 

SOYBEANS 

SX is near 10.36. SF is near 10.55. SX is up 60 cents vs ly at this time and 6 week high. Talk that US crushers need to buy soybeans is offering support. SX is now over all key moving averages and approaching overbought. SMZ is testing the 100 DMA. Spreads are tightening due to increase demand. BOZ stuck between 20 day and 100 day moving averages. China still not buying US soybeans and may soon tap reserves for crush. Trump will meet with XI. He wants China to buy US soybeans. Meeting has slowed US farmer selling. US soybean exports were near 1.5 mmt which is down 31 pct vs ly and USDA est down 10. US harvest est at 73 pct.

 

CORN 

CZ is near 4.23. CZ held key support with new buying above 4.20 and 4.21.  CZ up 8 cents since shutdown. Some feel corn rally linked to talk of lower IA corn yields. Lack of USDA November report, US export sales data and CFTC report is bearish. Some feel final US corn yields needs to drop below 177 to push futures higher. US corn harvest is near 60 pct. Weekly US corn exports were 1.32 mmt with total exports up 61 pct vs ly and USDA est up 5. Strong ethanol demand and slow farmer selling support Brazil prices.

 

WHEAT

WZ is near 5.03. Resistance 5.09. KWZ is near 4.89. MWZ is near 5.48. NOAA 90 day forecast suggest  below normal south plains rain and above normal temps. EU industry has a lot of issues coming together  at the same time. Traders are struggling with only spot demand from consumers against only minimal  sales from farmers and difficult logistics. Russia attacks slowing Ukraine logistics. Argentina and Australia will soon harvest record crops. US exports 481 mt with total exports up 20 pct vs USDA est of up 8.

 

 

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