Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
Despite a decline in API crude oil stocks of 4.1 million barrels from the API, signs that the OPEC plus stalemate remains in place, a 3.5% weekly decline in crude oil inventories in Europe, and a decline in API gasoline stocks, the crude oil market starts out lower and has spent the-majority-of the overnight trade in negative territory.
On one hand, AAA predicted record US gasoline consumption off record summer driving activity. On the other hand, retail gasoline prices are $1 a gallon above year ago levels and that could discourage some consumption. From a shorter-term perspective, a private gas station monitoring service indicated US gasoline demand fell has backed down from the record week leading into 4th of July holiday.
NATURAL GAS
From a short-term technical perspective, natural gas showed a noted reversal after making a new high for the move yesterday. Initially prices were lifted yesterday by a longer-term extremely hot temperature forecast for the US, but analysis that areas typically utilizing large amounts of gas for cooling are seeing below normal temperatures detracts from the bullish long-term forecast.
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