ADMIS News
COTTON
July Cotton was lower early Monday after starting off the session above Friday’s two-year highs. Not even the drop in oil prices on Friday stopped the rally, but the higher oil prices today are not lending much support either. The dollar was higher this morning after bouncing off six-week lows on Friday, and this undermines US export prospects. The extremely dry conditions in the US cotton belt has been a main contributor the 15-cent, 24% rally over the past two months. As of last Tuesday 97%, of US cotton growing area was under drought. The transition from La Nino to ENSO neutral conditions is now complete, which could favor better rainfall in the US cotton areas.
COCOA
July Cocoa was higher early Monday following last week’ selloff from two-month highs. The bulls are glad to have the first quarter grind date behind them, which while not bullish were about as expected. The European grind was lower than expected, but Asia had a surprise increase. The upcoming mid-crop looks good, and demand needs to recover. On Friday, Brazil’s first quarter grind came in at 51,715 metric tons, down 0.8% from the same period in 2026,according to data from local industry association AIPC released on Friday. This followed updates on Thursday that showed a 3.8% drop in North America, a 7.8% decline in Europe and a 5.2% increase in Asia. ICE cocoa stocks fell 5,511 bags on Friday to 2.619 million after reaching their highest level since August 21, 2024 on Thursday. Stocks increased 77,999 bags last week. World Weather Inc. says West Africa growing areas should see multiple rounds of rain this week. Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net sellers of 1,737 contracts of cocoa for the week ending April 14, increasing their net short to 18,105. This is the largest net short since October 2022 when nearby cocoa was trading around $2400. The record net short is 52,000.
COFFEE
July Coffee was slightly higher early Monday after last week’s selloff from a three week high. The market has been in a sideway pattern for the past 2 ½ months, as the trade awaits the arrival of the Brazilian crop. Last week Safras & Mercado raised their forecast for Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop to 75.65 million bags, up 4.65 million from their previous estimate and up 17% from 2025/26. Arabica production was forecast to be +29% from 2025/26. World Weather Inc says net drying is expected in most coffee areas over the next week, which is not unusual for this time of year. The US CPC has given El Nino a 61% of arriving during the May-July period. These events can bring drier than normal conditions to coffee growing regions of Africa, Indonesia, and India. However, World Weather Inc. warned that reports of a “Super El Nino” are overly-hyped.
SUGAR
July Sugar just barely held above the contract low at 13.34 when it sold off on Friday. Adding to the pressure was a drop in crude oil prices off the news that Iran had reopened the Strait of Hormuz, but the recovery in crude overnight on the Strait’s “closure “ over the weekend has only lent mild support to sugar at best. Conab raised its forecast for Brazil’s 2025/26 cane harvest by 1.02% from its previous estimate to 673.25 million metric tons and their center-south cane production by 1.46% to 616.24 million tons. This would still be down from 2024/25. Sugar production was estimated at 44.2 million tons, up 0.1% from 2024/25. The 2026/27 season is just beginning, and the trade has been expecting close to steady sugar production against a stronger cane crop due to an expected increase in ethanol output. The market is still dealing with a large overhang in supply for 2025/26, and expectations for 2026/27 have been running from a smaller surplus to a small deficit. The Indian government is expecting below average monsoon rainfall this year due to El Nino. That could impact their 2026/27 sugar crop, which will be harvested next fall.
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