Written Commentary
TODAY—EXPORT INSPECTIONS—
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 4 cents, HRW up 3; HRS Wheat up 2, Corn is down 2 cents; Seans up 1 1; Soymeal unchanged, and Soyoil up 5 points.
South America Weather Forecast: Brazil’s bottom line remains good for most of its summer grain, oilseed. Argentina’s bottom line remains mostly good with a favorable mix of rain and sunshine expected over the next two weeks in central and northern parts of the nation. Portions of southern Argentina will struggle for well-timed rainfall, but many areas will get at least some precipitation to slow the drying trend.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 20,000 SRW Wheat; sold 42,000 Corn; net sold 35,000 Soybeans; sold 12,000 lots of Soymeal, an; net sold 10,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 304,000 Corn; net long 109,000 Soybeans; net long 58,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 91,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 3,000 contracts; HRW Wheat down 1,500; Corn down 16,200; Soybeans down 9,300 contracts; Soymeal down 3,300 lots, and; Soyoil up 5,900.
There were no changes in registrations—registrations total 49 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 169; Soyoil 1,289 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 732; HRW Wheat 91, and; HRS 1,023.
HAMBURG, Jan 22 (Reuters) – Agriculture ministers from more than 70 countries urged governments to keep world food trade open to ensure food supplies during the COVID-19 pandemic, a communique after a virtual meeting on Friday said.
The meeting was part of the Global Forum for Food and Agriculture conference in Berlin and the communique said that despite COVID-19, global food supply and international markets have been relatively stable.
But food export restrictions imposed by some countries during the pandemic should have time limits, it said.
About 40 countries worldwide do not have enough farmland to feed themselves and are dependent on food imports, added German agriculture minister Julia Kloeckner.
SAO PAULO, Jan 22 (Reuters) – Brazilian farmers are poised to reap a record harvest of 132.2 million tonnes of soybeans in 2021 despite a drought that delayed plantings, according to the average of estimates in a poll of 13 analysts on Friday.
In December, the consensus forecast showed farmers would harvest 131.79 million tonnes of soybeans, which is Brazil’s most prized export commodity. Last year, farmers produced almost 125 million tonnes, according to government data.
The return of rains and good productivity in some areas have improved the outlook for this year’s crop after a somewhat worrying start, the poll showed.
Brazil’s dry weather helped fuel a soy price rally in Chicago in recent months. But on Friday, soybeans were down for the fourth time in five sessions as improved South American crop weather eased concerns about a drought-shortened harvest
Strong demand from buyers like China has limited declines. Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans, is forecast to export some 83 million tonnes of soybeans this year, mainly to China, analysts say
MOSCOW, Jan 22 (Reuters) – Sovecon has raised its Russian 2021 wheat crop forecast to 77.7 million tonnes from 76.8 million citing improved weather conditions in January, the agricultural consultancy said on Friday.
Snow cover also provided timely insulation for plants during the recent cold snap in regions close to the Black Sea, it said.
Farmers in the main winter wheat producing regions currently rate weather conditions as average or slightly better than average, Sovecon said.
Russia produced 85.9 million tonnes of wheat in 2020.
SINGAPORE, Jan 25 (Reuters) – Malaysian palm oil futures extended losses for a second session on Monday, tracking declines in rival vegetable oils on the Dalian Commodity Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).
The benchmark palm oil contract for April delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 49 ringgit, or 1.5%, to 3,233 ringgit ($799.26) a tonne by midday.
It shed 0.2% on Friday and saw its second weekly loss as exports continued to drop.
CBOT soybean futures extended losses on Monday as rains in South American growing regions eased concerns about tight global supplies. Soyoil prices on the CBOT were last down 0.2%.
Meanwhile, Dalian’s most-active soyoil contract fell 1.4% and its palm oil contract dropped 0.8%.
Palm oil is affected by price movements in related oils as they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market.
A Reuters poll last week found that palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia is expected to recover and drive volatility in prices this year, which may reach nine-year highs.
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