ADMIS News
COCOA
December Cocoa was near unchanged overnight and inside yesterday’s relatively wide range. There appear to be no major threats to the west African main crop, and traders are waiting to see much the main crop comes will alleviate the tight global supply. Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals totaled 21,000 metric tons last week, up from 17,000 the previous week and the highest since June 16. Cumulative arrivals since the marketing year began last October have reached 1.754 million tons, down 24.5% from a year ago. Ivory coast farmers interviewed by Reuters said drier weather and high moisture content in most of the nation’s main cocoa regions have continued to boost the development of the main crop. Farmers did say rains were below average last week. They also said they expect to get two harvests per month between October and December because there are many well developed pods of different sizes on trees. They are reportedly stockpiling their first beans in warehouses while they wait for the new farmgate price, which they hope will be well above the current 1,500 CFA franc ($2.560) per kilogram.
COFFEE
December Coffee extended its recovery rally overnight and was within striking distance of last week’s contract high. The rainfall expected for Brazil’s main coffee growing regions over the weekend was lighter than expected, and the forecast has little chance for any significant rainfall through the end of the month. Brazil’s dry season is expected to be coming to an end soon, and there should be a gradual increase in humidity and rainfall that would induce flowering and initiate the beginning stages of the 2025 crop. The extreme heat and dryness this year has some agronomists worried that the trees are too stressed produce a strong crop even if the rains come on time. Vietnam is getting decent rainfall, but Indonesia is dry. Both are key growing regions for robusta coffee.
COTTON
The tropical storm/hurricane that is expected to land in along Florida’s panhandle this week could bring heavy rains to Georgia at an inopportune time. Yesterday’s crop weekly Crop Progress report showed Georgia had 63% of its bolls open and none harvested as of Sunday, which leaves the crop vulnerable to discoloration and damage and possibly boll rot if things do not dry out quickly. On the other hand, the report also showed that 59% of Georgia’s crop was rated good/excellent, which was up from 53% last week and 56% a year ago and right on the five-year average. Yesterday’s report also showed 37% of the US crop was rated G/E, down from 39% the previous week and the lowest so far this year. This is up from 30% a year ago but below the five-year average for this date (42%). Texas was 22% G/E, down from 28% last week but up from 10% a year ago. The five-year average is 28%. The US crop had 63% with bolls open and 14% harvested. Texas was 55% open and 26% harvested, Arkansas 95% open and 7% harvested, and Mississippi 87% open and 15% harvested. Overnight China unveiled its most aggressive stimulus move since the pandemic, which could boost demand ideas. However, their cotton crop looks strong this year.
SUGAR
The outlook for the world’s sugar supply is getting tighter as the extent of Brazil’s drought seems to be commanding the market’s attention. Their rainy season is expected to begin next month. The CEO of Brazilian ethanol producer indicated yesterday that he is more worried about the drought’s potential to hurt the 2025/26 sugarcane harvest than the current season. Some areas of center-south Brazil received rain over the weekend but nothing in the last 24 hours. World Weather Service has no significant rain in the forecast through this weekend. Thailand is expecting a recovery in their 2024/25 sugar production to 10.39 million metric tons from 8.8 million in 2023/24 but still not as strong as the 11.05 million from 2022/23.
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