Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government in 16th day of partial shutdown. Grains are mixed. US stocks are higher. USD is lower. Crude is slightly higher but still near $58. Trump announced India may no longer buy Russia oil. Gold is higher and near 4,250. Bessent suggest longer trade truce with China. Citadel Griffin said GenAI is not helping funds beat the markets. US Midwest rains in ND,SD and IA. More east Midwest showers Oct 15-22. Brazil to see weekend rains. Argentina next week. CFTC report delayed due to government shutdown.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.08. US NOPA Sep soybean crush was 197.8 mil bu vs 186 expected vs 177 ly. NOPA is 99 pct of total crush capacity. Largest increase vs ly in SW region. Soyoil stocks were 1,243 mil lb sv 1,223 expected and 1,066 ly. No weekly export sales but trade est soybean sales were 500-1,400 mt. India Oct-Sep vegoil imports were 16.5 mmt vs 16.0 ly. Soyoil 5.4 vs 3.3 ly. Palmoil 8.0 vs 9.0 ly. Malaysia Jan-Sep palmoil exports were 11.0 mmt vs 12.3 ly. China .6 vs 1.0, India 1.9 vs 2.2.
CORN
CZ is near 4.16. CZ held key support and bounced on fund short covering near 4.16. Interior IA corn basis remain weak. Bears feel last 30 pct of harvest will stress storage capacity and weigh on futures and cash basis. Lack of USDA October report and now maybe November, US export sales data and CFTC report is bearish. Trade could see US corn yield slightly below USDA 186.7 but feed and residual could drop 200 mil bu and increase carryout closer to 2,464 mil bu and could drop CZ closer to 380. No weekly corn export sales but trade est sales were 900-2,000 mt.
WHEAT
WZ is near 4.96. Wheat futures rallied on talk of 4 cargo sale to Bangladesh. There is talk China may import only 3-4 mmt of wheat vs USDA est of 6. Wheat futures remain supply bear market Great lakes SRW basis is near -35 WZ. Up from Jan low but still below high in July, 2019. WZ oversold below 4.90 but key resistance is near 5.15-5.20. KWZ is near 4.85. HRW domestic basis is near -80-90 cents. MWZ is near 5.50. No weekly export sales but trade est wheat sales were 300-650 mt.
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