Written Commentary
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold: Gold prices rose overnight as dip buyers hit the market, with April COMEX contracts up 0.90% to $4,415. Brent crude rose to $110 a barrel, even as President Trump extended a pause in attacks on Iran’s energy plants for 10 days. Inflation concerns continue to support the dollar and yields, offering a headwind to gains for precious metals.
One-year inflation swaps are above 3.0%, pointing to a market that is pricing sustained near-term CPI upside risk. Markets are now pricing nearly a 50% chance of a December rate hike, a sharp reversal from earlier in the week when markets were expecting no policy action. However, the Fed looks more likely to cut rates than to raise them given its dual mandate and the possibility of the bank looking through an energy price shock in an effort to support the labor market.
Gold is likely to continue to experience strong headwinds in the face of higher energy prices and risks that monetary policy could stay higher for longer. Like the equities, a sustained moved higher in gold will require material evidence of a de-escalation and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Until then, inflation expectations will play an outsized role in the metal’s direction.
Still, ongoing geopolitical risks and central‑bank reserve diversification continue to underpin longer‑term demand for bullion as a macro hedge, suggesting that while the near‑term balance of risks is tilted toward volatility around US data and Fed‑speak, structural support from official‑sector buying and strategic investors remains in place on deeper dips.
Silver: Silver futures are down 0.2% to $67.75.
BASE METALS
Copper: Copper prices are lower, with benchmark three-month copper on the LME down 0.3% at $12,115. Elevated inventory levels and macroeconomic concerns related to the Iran conflict continue to contribute to volatility. Ultimately, copper is lacking near-term fundamental support. Visible stocks of over 1 million tonnes and a negative outlook on economic growth risk further downside for copper prices.
However, offering support for prices was Chinese industrial profits data, which showed profits grew 15.2% in the first two months of 2026, though moved the market very little. Chinese demand has alsao been supportive as lower prices have attracted the bid. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE fell 12.6% this week to 359,135 tons while the Yangshan copper premium, a gauge of China’s appetite for imported copper, closed the week at $68 a ton after hitting a nine-month high of $69 during the week. LME copper warehouse stocks remain at nearly an eight-year high close to 360,000 tons, up 150% YTD. Still, risks around the conflict remain a headwind to prices given the uncertainty and potential impacts on demand and monetary policy.
Copper remains a market caught between structural bulls and cyclical sceptics. On one side, investors focused on grid build‑out, renewables and data‑center demand continue to view pullbacks as opportunities to maintain exposure to a constrained supply story. On the other, rising inventories, uneven Chinese property activity and slower factory growth in several major economies are encouraging macro funds to fade rallies and keep overall risk light.
Zinc: Zinc was steady at $3,082.
Aluminum: Aluminum lost 0.9% to $3,240.
Tin: Tin gained 0.9% to $44,500.
Lead: Lead lost 0.2% to $1,887.
Nickel: Nickel was down 0.4% at $17,190.
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