Written Commentary
CURRENCY FUTURES
Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials are supporting the U.S. dollar.
The proportion of U.K. businesses expecting to raise prices has declined in the latest indication that price pressures have peaked after inflation hit a 41-year high last year. The Office for National Statistics said 18% of businesses expect to increase the prices of goods or services they sell next month, which is down from 23% in a similar survey conducted in the previous month.
Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate unexpectedly increased to 3.7% in April, which compares to market expectations of 3.5%. The number of unemployed individuals increased by 18,400 to 528,000, while employment declined by 4,300 totaling 13.88 million. This represents the first decline in employment over the past three months, falling short of market predictions of a 25,000 increase.
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are mostly lower despite better than expected corporate earnings reports and a more optimistic tone to the debt ceiling increase talks.
Jobless claims in the week ended May 13 were 242,000 when 255,000 anticipated.
The May Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index was negative 10.4 when negative 20.0 was predicted.
There are two 9:00 central time reports. April existing home sales are anticipated to be 4.295 million, and April leading indicators are predicted to be down 0.6%.
Stock index futures have performed well in 2023 despite a variety of bearish news and an ongoing hawkish Federal Reserve.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures are lower due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials.
Federal Reserve speakers today are Philip Jefferson at 8:05 and Lorrie Logan at 9:00.
The Federal Open Market Committee will probably keep its fed funds rate unchanged at its June 14 policy meeting.
A hawkish Fed is dominating the fundamentals in the near term.
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