ADMIS News
COCOA
March Cocoa was slightly higher early Monday and near the upper end of the narrow range of the past two weeks. A report on Friday that Ivory Coast cocoa grind in November was down 6.7% from the same period last year was viewed as an indication of slow demand, but it could also reflect low production, as suggested by the slow arrivals pace in October. Arrivals picked up in November, but as of December 21 they were still running 4% behind a year ago and 9% behind the five-year average. Unseasonable rains for West Africa in December may have slowed harvest and drying and port arrivals, but they may also have extended the production season, as they should help pod development. Conditions turned drier last week, but World Weather Inc. expects above normal rain in Ivory Coast this week.
COTTON
March Cotton has run into resistance at the 50-day moving average after trading up to that line on Friday and holding below it early Monday. The market drew support last week from a strong export sales report as well as a weaker dollar. The next export sales report will be released on Wednesday, December 31. The dollar crept higher early Monday after falling to its lowest level since October on Thursday. Last week’s export sales report showed US cotton sales for the week ending December 11 at 304,689 bales for the 2025/26 (current) marketing year and 14,960 for 2026/27 for a total of 319,649. This was up from 153,606 the previous week and was the strongest since November 6. It was also the second time above 300,000 this marketing year.
COFFEE
March Coffee was near unchanged early Monday and near the upper end of the narrow range of the previous seven sessions. The market may have seen some support from dry conditions in Brazil last week as well as ongoing concerns over heavy rains in Indonesia. Vietnam’s Central Highlands were mostly dry over the weekend, which should aid harvest and drying of beans, and World Weather Inc. expects that pattern to continue this week. But many areas of Indonesia have saturated soils, leaving local areas vulnerable to flooding every time moderate to heavy rain develops. These conditions are expected to continue over the next week to ten days. Brazil will see some increase in rainfall in the second half of this week ad into next week, which should benefit production for 2026/27.
SUGAR
March Sugar was inside Friday’s range early Monday and only slightly below last week’s two-month high. After falling to contract lows in November, the market has seen some modest short covering on ideas that Brazilian production is slowing down as crushers focus more of their efforts to produce ethanol. Reuters reported that industry group NovaBio said on Friday that sugarcane crushing in Brazil’s North and Northeast regions reached 32.5 million metric tons through November 30, which was down 9.4% from the a same period in 2024. Together these regions they account for about 10% of Brazil’s total crop. Sugar output in the period declined 24% to 1.66 million tons.
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