Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grain are higher. SU is up 19 cents and near 14.48. SMU is near 430.6. BOU is near 67.70. CU is up 18 cents and near 5.45. WU is up 34 cents and near 7.31. KWU is up 27 cents and near 8.87. MWU is up 27 cents and near 9.14. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold, silver and copper are higher.
Russia continues to strike Ukraine port infrastructure and dry central US Midwest weather is helping push futures higher. Contrary to Fridays reports of efforts to resume Ukraine exports, Russia does not appear to allow Ukraine to use ports for grain exports. Plains and Midwest temps could reach 90’s and 100. E Midwest could be a few degrees cooler. EU 11-15 is dry. GFS suggest normal rains.
GSI commodity Index rallied above key resistance and best close since November due to higher livestock and energy markets. Higher soy complex prices also offered support. US Central Bank is expected to raise lending rates .25 on Wednesday to 5.25-5.50 then pause. So far US/World has avoided a recession with higher labor markets. China economy though looks weak amid lower consumer spending and falling real estate values. Continued higher commodity prices will need China to help consumer spending.
CZ is near 5.50. Corn price outlook could be a broad range from 4.50-7.00 depending upon final corn yield and demand especially China feed grain import demand. Some est US 2022/23 corn carryout near 1,417 vs USDA 1,402 and 2023/24 near 2,356 with a yield of 175.0. Lower exports and ethanol use offsets lower yield. WU is now over 7.00, KWU is near 9.00. MWU is now over 9.00. Wheat 2023/24 carryout is est near 617 vs USDA 592 due to lower domestic use. SX is now near 14.50. Some est US 2022/23 soybean carryout near 295 vs USDA 255 and 2023/24 near 225 with a yield of 50.5. Soyoil futures is near 68 cents on higher cash markets and cancellation of delivery receipts. SX could test 15.00, BOU 75 cents.
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