Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are lower. USD is higher. Crude is higher. World Crude oil market is oversupplied with surplus in early 2026 near 3 mil barrels per day. Global demand could slow with tariffs triggering stagflation. US Central Bank needs to decide between fighting inflation or sagging employment. Trade is forecasting a bearish bias to raw material prices. Europe leaders will meet in Washington to discuss Ukraine futures. Trade watching Fed Chairman comments at Jackson Hole Kansas City Fed annual meeting
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.37. Fridays SX close was best in 6 weeks. East US Midwest weekend rains were better than expected. Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour this week. Since 2003, Tour yield has been below USDA Sep and final yield 70 pct of time. In their IA/IL crop tour, ARC found record pod count. USDA raised US 2024/25 export and crush 10 mil bu each. NOPA July crush was 195.7 mil bu vs 182.8 Soyoil stocks were 1,379 mil lbs vs 1,499 last year. China continues to show no interest in US soybeans.
CORN
CZ is near 4.03. CZ resistance is now near 4.10. East US Midwest weekend rains were better than expected. USDA increased total 24/25 demand 35 mil bu. Higher exports offset lower domestic use. Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour this week. Since 2003, Tour yield has been below USDA Sep and final yield 57 pct of time. In their IA/IL crop tour, ARC found record ears per acre. Conab est Brazil corn crop at 137 mmt vs USDA 132 with private est in mid 140’s. USDA announced 132 mt US 25/26 corn to Spain and 136 mt to S Korea.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.27. KWZ is near 5.28. MWZ is near 5.89. US prices are near lower end of projected range. USDA raised HRW, SRW and Durum 2025 crop and lowered Spring and White. USDA also lowered US 25/36 HRW, HRS and White end stocks but raised SRW and Durum. France is seeing more Morocco vessels and may have sold wheat to Bangladesh. C EU wheat quality is better than expected. Germany raised their crop est to 22.4 mmt vs 21.5 previous. Some feel USDA is 8-10 mmt too high in World trade. This could increase exporters end stocks.
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