Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Vote. Grains are mixed to higher. US stocks are slightly higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Market volatility could increase after US election and as Fed meeting nears. USDA report for November out Friday..
SOYBEANS
SF is near 9.99. Global vegoil markets are seeing some consolidation. Managed funds are short soybeans, long soymeal,, soyoil, board crush and oil share going into US election and South America weather. US soybean exports are up 3 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 9 pct. Nearby China demand for US soybeans is supportive. USDA announced 132 mt US soybeans to unknown. Brazil soybean plantings is near 54 pct and in line with average. Fact 2025 South America soybean crop could be 20 mmt higher than last year should provide pressure to futures February forward. Trade est US 2024 soybean crop at 4,557 mil bu vs USDA Oct est of 4,582. Trade est 2024/25 carryout at 532 vs USDA 550.
CORN
CZ is near 4.17. Some look for nearby corn futures in a range from 3.90-4.35. US corn exports are up 34 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 1 pct. USDA announced 150 mt US corn to Mexico and 120 mt to unknown. US election adding to uncertainty to US Ag domestic and foreign policy. Trade est US 2024 corn crop at 15,189 mil bu vs USDA Oct est of 15,203. Trade est 2024/25 carryout at 1,946 vs USDA 1,999. US ethanol margins up with corn and prices lower and ethanol prices at 2 month high. Brazil corn export pace is slow and suggest exports could be down 10 mmt vs USDA 46.5. Some feel final Argentina corn acres could be higher than USDA est.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.70. KWZ is near 5.73. MWZ is near 6.08. Some look for nearby Chicago wheat futures in a range from 5.50-6.20. US exports are up 35 pct vs USDA est of up 17 pct. USDA rated US winter crop 42 pct G/E vs 38 last week and 50 ly. Trade est 2024/25 carryout at 532 vs USDA 550. Normal 2025 north hemisphere wheat crops could offer long term resistance. Egypt bought 290 mt E EU and Ukraine wheat. Matif wheat futures continue to slip lower on better EU weather and bearish tech selling.
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