Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
From a macroeconomic perspective, sentiment today is slightly upbeat with strong Chinese export data for September, a series of favorable corporate earnings reports and from signs that the US consumer remains healthy according to credit card statistics. However, energy prices have started out lower and appear to have lost their upward momentum.
While we hesitate to suggest a single statistic will be a prime determinant of price direction in gasoline, seeing a surplus build in EIA annual gasoline stocks and seeing the US refinery operating rate maintain above 90% should be cause for a correction in November gasoline down to the $2.33 level.
NATURAL GAS
On one hand, the natural gas market ranged sharply lower yesterday and in the process reached the lowest level since September 24th and that downside breakout should discourage some bargain hunting buying. On the other hand, the natural gas market aggressively rejected that washout and closed just under its highs of the day.
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